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Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon and aggressive malignant head and neck cancer, which is highly prevalent in southern and southwestern provinces in China. The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Ruhao, He, Yifei, Wei, Bincai, Lu, Yongbo, Zhang, Jingya, Zhang, Ning, He, Rongxin, Xue, Hao, Zhu, Bin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9961544/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36833622
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926
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author Zhang, Ruhao
He, Yifei
Wei, Bincai
Lu, Yongbo
Zhang, Jingya
Zhang, Ning
He, Rongxin
Xue, Hao
Zhu, Bin
author_facet Zhang, Ruhao
He, Yifei
Wei, Bincai
Lu, Yongbo
Zhang, Jingya
Zhang, Ning
He, Rongxin
Xue, Hao
Zhu, Bin
author_sort Zhang, Ruhao
collection PubMed
description Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon and aggressive malignant head and neck cancer, which is highly prevalent in southern and southwestern provinces in China. The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence trends from 2020 to 2049. All data were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were chosen to analyze prevalence trends. The temporal trends and age distribution of risk factors were also analyzed descriptively. Bayesian APC models were used to predict the prevalence from 2020 to 2049. The results indicate a higher disease burden in men and older adults. Their attributable risk factors are smoking, occupational exposure to formaldehyde, and alcohol use. We predict that the incidence will be on the rise in all age groups between 2020 and 2049, with the highest incidence in people aged 70 to 89 years. In 2049, the incidence rate is expected to reach 13.39 per 100,000 (50–54 years), 16.43 (55–59 years), 17.26 (60–64 years), 18.02 (65–69 years), 18.55 (70–74 years), 18.39 (75–79 years), 19.95 (80–84 years), 23.07 (85–89 years), 13.70 (90–94 years), and 6.68 (95+ years). The findings of this study might deserve consideration in China’s NPC prevention and control policy design.
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spelling pubmed-99615442023-02-26 Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050 Zhang, Ruhao He, Yifei Wei, Bincai Lu, Yongbo Zhang, Jingya Zhang, Ning He, Rongxin Xue, Hao Zhu, Bin Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon and aggressive malignant head and neck cancer, which is highly prevalent in southern and southwestern provinces in China. The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence trends from 2020 to 2049. All data were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were chosen to analyze prevalence trends. The temporal trends and age distribution of risk factors were also analyzed descriptively. Bayesian APC models were used to predict the prevalence from 2020 to 2049. The results indicate a higher disease burden in men and older adults. Their attributable risk factors are smoking, occupational exposure to formaldehyde, and alcohol use. We predict that the incidence will be on the rise in all age groups between 2020 and 2049, with the highest incidence in people aged 70 to 89 years. In 2049, the incidence rate is expected to reach 13.39 per 100,000 (50–54 years), 16.43 (55–59 years), 17.26 (60–64 years), 18.02 (65–69 years), 18.55 (70–74 years), 18.39 (75–79 years), 19.95 (80–84 years), 23.07 (85–89 years), 13.70 (90–94 years), and 6.68 (95+ years). The findings of this study might deserve consideration in China’s NPC prevention and control policy design. MDPI 2023-02-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9961544/ /pubmed/36833622 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Ruhao
He, Yifei
Wei, Bincai
Lu, Yongbo
Zhang, Jingya
Zhang, Ning
He, Rongxin
Xue, Hao
Zhu, Bin
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050
title Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050
title_full Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050
title_fullStr Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050
title_full_unstemmed Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050
title_short Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050
title_sort nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden and its attributable risk factors in china: estimates and forecasts from 1990 to 2050
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9961544/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36833622
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926
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