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Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area

Extreme rainfall and high tide levels are the main causal factors of urban flood disasters in coastal areas. As complex interactions between these factors can exacerbate the impact of urban flood disasters in coastal areas, an associated flood risk assessment involves not only the estimation of the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Chen, Hao, Xu, Zongxue, Chen, Ji, Liu, Yang, Li, Peng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9962135/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36834298
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043605
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author Chen, Hao
Xu, Zongxue
Chen, Ji
Liu, Yang
Li, Peng
author_facet Chen, Hao
Xu, Zongxue
Chen, Ji
Liu, Yang
Li, Peng
author_sort Chen, Hao
collection PubMed
description Extreme rainfall and high tide levels are the main causal factors of urban flood disasters in coastal areas. As complex interactions between these factors can exacerbate the impact of urban flood disasters in coastal areas, an associated flood risk assessment involves not only the estimation of the extreme values of each variable but also their probability of occurring simultaneously. With a consideration of the Shenzhen River Basin (China), this study used bivariate copula functions to quantitatively evaluate the joint risk of extreme rainfall and a high tide level. The results showed that a significant positive correlation exists between extreme rainfall and the corresponding high tide level, and that if the positive dependency was ignored, the probability of simultaneous extreme events would be underestimated. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which heavy rainfall and high tide level events occur concurrently, the “AND” joint return period based on the annual maxima method should be adopted. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which either only a heavy rainfall or a high tide level event occurs, the “OR” joint return period should be adopted. The results represent a theoretical basis and decision-making support for flood risk management and flood prevention/reduction in coastal areas.
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spelling pubmed-99621352023-02-26 Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area Chen, Hao Xu, Zongxue Chen, Ji Liu, Yang Li, Peng Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Extreme rainfall and high tide levels are the main causal factors of urban flood disasters in coastal areas. As complex interactions between these factors can exacerbate the impact of urban flood disasters in coastal areas, an associated flood risk assessment involves not only the estimation of the extreme values of each variable but also their probability of occurring simultaneously. With a consideration of the Shenzhen River Basin (China), this study used bivariate copula functions to quantitatively evaluate the joint risk of extreme rainfall and a high tide level. The results showed that a significant positive correlation exists between extreme rainfall and the corresponding high tide level, and that if the positive dependency was ignored, the probability of simultaneous extreme events would be underestimated. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which heavy rainfall and high tide level events occur concurrently, the “AND” joint return period based on the annual maxima method should be adopted. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which either only a heavy rainfall or a high tide level event occurs, the “OR” joint return period should be adopted. The results represent a theoretical basis and decision-making support for flood risk management and flood prevention/reduction in coastal areas. MDPI 2023-02-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9962135/ /pubmed/36834298 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043605 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Hao
Xu, Zongxue
Chen, Ji
Liu, Yang
Li, Peng
Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area
title Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area
title_full Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area
title_fullStr Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area
title_full_unstemmed Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area
title_short Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area
title_sort joint risk analysis of extreme rainfall and high tide level based on extreme value theory in coastal area
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9962135/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36834298
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043605
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