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Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program

Background: Bladder cancer is often prone to recurrence and metastasis. We sought to construct nomogram models to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of bladder cancer patients. Methods: A reliable random split-sample approach was used to divide patients into two gro...

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Autores principales: Wen, Peng, Wen, Jiao, Huang, Xiaolong, Wang, Fengze
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9962885/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36835849
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12041314
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author Wen, Peng
Wen, Jiao
Huang, Xiaolong
Wang, Fengze
author_facet Wen, Peng
Wen, Jiao
Huang, Xiaolong
Wang, Fengze
author_sort Wen, Peng
collection PubMed
description Background: Bladder cancer is often prone to recurrence and metastasis. We sought to construct nomogram models to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of bladder cancer patients. Methods: A reliable random split-sample approach was used to divide patients into two groups: modeling and validation cohorts. Uni-variate and multivariate survival analyses were used to obtain the independent prognostic risk factors based on the modeling cohort. A nomogram was constructed using the R package, “rms”. Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to evaluate the discrimination, sensitivity and specificity of the nomograms using the R packages “hmisc”, “rms” and “timeROC”. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical value of the nomograms via R package “stdca.R”. Results: 10,478 and 10,379 patients were assigned into nomogram modeling and validation cohorts, respectively (split ratio ≈ 1:1). For OS and CSS, the C-index values for internal validation were 0.738 and 0.780, respectively, and the C-index values for external validation were 0.739 and 0.784, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for 5- and 8-year OS and CSS were all greater than 0.7. The calibration curves show that the predicted probability values of 5- and 8-year OS and CSS are close to the actual OS and CSS. The decision curve analysis revealed that the two nomograms have a positive clinical benefit. Conclusion: We successfully constructed two nomograms to forecast OS and CSS for bladder cancer patients. This information can help clinicians conduct prognostic evaluations in an individualized manner and tailor personalized treatment plans.
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spelling pubmed-99628852023-02-26 Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program Wen, Peng Wen, Jiao Huang, Xiaolong Wang, Fengze J Clin Med Article Background: Bladder cancer is often prone to recurrence and metastasis. We sought to construct nomogram models to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of bladder cancer patients. Methods: A reliable random split-sample approach was used to divide patients into two groups: modeling and validation cohorts. Uni-variate and multivariate survival analyses were used to obtain the independent prognostic risk factors based on the modeling cohort. A nomogram was constructed using the R package, “rms”. Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to evaluate the discrimination, sensitivity and specificity of the nomograms using the R packages “hmisc”, “rms” and “timeROC”. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical value of the nomograms via R package “stdca.R”. Results: 10,478 and 10,379 patients were assigned into nomogram modeling and validation cohorts, respectively (split ratio ≈ 1:1). For OS and CSS, the C-index values for internal validation were 0.738 and 0.780, respectively, and the C-index values for external validation were 0.739 and 0.784, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for 5- and 8-year OS and CSS were all greater than 0.7. The calibration curves show that the predicted probability values of 5- and 8-year OS and CSS are close to the actual OS and CSS. The decision curve analysis revealed that the two nomograms have a positive clinical benefit. Conclusion: We successfully constructed two nomograms to forecast OS and CSS for bladder cancer patients. This information can help clinicians conduct prognostic evaluations in an individualized manner and tailor personalized treatment plans. MDPI 2023-02-07 /pmc/articles/PMC9962885/ /pubmed/36835849 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12041314 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Wen, Peng
Wen, Jiao
Huang, Xiaolong
Wang, Fengze
Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program
title Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program
title_full Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program
title_fullStr Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program
title_full_unstemmed Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program
title_short Development and Validation of Nomograms Predicting the 5- and 8-Year Overall and Cancer-Specific Survival of Bladder Cancer Patients Based on SEER Program
title_sort development and validation of nomograms predicting the 5- and 8-year overall and cancer-specific survival of bladder cancer patients based on seer program
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9962885/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36835849
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm12041314
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