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Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models

Computational models have become a powerful tool in the quantitative sciences to understand the behavior of complex systems that evolve in time. However, they often contain a potentially large number of free parameters whose values cannot be obtained from theory but need to be inferred from data. Th...

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Autores principales: Gaskin, Thomas, Pavliotis, Grigorios A., Girolami, Mark
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9963791/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36763529
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2216415120
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author Gaskin, Thomas
Pavliotis, Grigorios A.
Girolami, Mark
author_facet Gaskin, Thomas
Pavliotis, Grigorios A.
Girolami, Mark
author_sort Gaskin, Thomas
collection PubMed
description Computational models have become a powerful tool in the quantitative sciences to understand the behavior of complex systems that evolve in time. However, they often contain a potentially large number of free parameters whose values cannot be obtained from theory but need to be inferred from data. This is especially the case for models in the social sciences, economics, or computational epidemiology. Yet, many current parameter estimation methods are mathematically involved and computationally slow to run. In this paper, we present a computationally simple and fast method to retrieve accurate probability densities for model parameters using neural differential equations. We present a pipeline comprising multiagent models acting as forward solvers for systems of ordinary or stochastic differential equations and a neural network to then extract parameters from the data generated by the model. The two combined create a powerful tool that can quickly estimate densities on model parameters, even for very large systems. We demonstrate the method on synthetic time series data of the SIR model of the spread of infection and perform an in-depth analysis of the Harris–Wilson model of economic activity on a network, representing a nonconvex problem. For the latter, we apply our method both to synthetic data and to data of economic activity across Greater London. We find that our method calibrates the model orders of magnitude more accurately than a previous study of the same dataset using classical techniques, while running between 195 and 390 times faster.
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spelling pubmed-99637912023-02-26 Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models Gaskin, Thomas Pavliotis, Grigorios A. Girolami, Mark Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences Computational models have become a powerful tool in the quantitative sciences to understand the behavior of complex systems that evolve in time. However, they often contain a potentially large number of free parameters whose values cannot be obtained from theory but need to be inferred from data. This is especially the case for models in the social sciences, economics, or computational epidemiology. Yet, many current parameter estimation methods are mathematically involved and computationally slow to run. In this paper, we present a computationally simple and fast method to retrieve accurate probability densities for model parameters using neural differential equations. We present a pipeline comprising multiagent models acting as forward solvers for systems of ordinary or stochastic differential equations and a neural network to then extract parameters from the data generated by the model. The two combined create a powerful tool that can quickly estimate densities on model parameters, even for very large systems. We demonstrate the method on synthetic time series data of the SIR model of the spread of infection and perform an in-depth analysis of the Harris–Wilson model of economic activity on a network, representing a nonconvex problem. For the latter, we apply our method both to synthetic data and to data of economic activity across Greater London. We find that our method calibrates the model orders of magnitude more accurately than a previous study of the same dataset using classical techniques, while running between 195 and 390 times faster. National Academy of Sciences 2023-02-10 2023-02-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9963791/ /pubmed/36763529 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2216415120 Text en Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Physical Sciences
Gaskin, Thomas
Pavliotis, Grigorios A.
Girolami, Mark
Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models
title Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models
title_full Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models
title_fullStr Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models
title_full_unstemmed Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models
title_short Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models
title_sort neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models
topic Physical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9963791/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36763529
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2216415120
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