Climate Change Influences the Population Density and Suitable Area of Hippotiscus dorsalis (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The damage by Hippotiscus dorsalis (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) has resulted in the substantial mortality of moso bamboo in South China. In this study, we survey the damage of H. dorsalis from 2005 to 2013 in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, and evaluate the current and future potential distribution in China. The results revealed (1) the April mean temperature and April maximum temperature were the main factors affecting the damage of H. dorsalis, and (2) the significant expansion of high suitable areas in Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under future climate circumstances. ABSTRACT: Hippotiscus dorsalis is the main pest of Phyllostachys edulis in South China. The relationship between climate change and outbreak of H. dorsalis, and the current and future distribution of H. dorsalis are unknown. This study aimed to confirm the effect of climate on population density and the attacked bamboo rate of H. dorsalis, using field survey data from 2005 to 2013 in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, and to reveal the potential distribution of H. dorsalis under current and future climate conditions using the MaxEnt model. The damage investigation and distribution forecast revealed the following: (1) The mean monthly temperature and maximum temperatures were main factors affecting the population density and the attacked bamboo rate in April in the Anji county of Zhejiang Province; they are all significantly and positively correlated. (2) High suitable area will significantly expand in Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under the future climate circumstances, and the total suitable area will present a decrease because of the precipitation restriction. The significant expansion of high suitable area in the Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under future climate circumstances means that the affected provinces will face even greater challenges. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the early forecasting and monitoring of pest outbreaks.