Numerical Response of Owls to the Dampening of Small Mammal Population Cycles in Latvia

SIMPLE SUMMARY: This article demonstrates the dampening of small mammal population dynamics and describes the numerical response of owls in Latvia. Numerical response was measured by diet, breeding performance, and trends in population change of six owl species. The responses varied among owl species, ranging from increased food niche breadth in more plastic species to reduced breeding performance and decreasing population size in more specialized species. The eagle owl seems to depend on voles in the previous autumn via the carry-over effect as measured by reduced breeding performance. Species more specialized in breeding in mature forests showed greater population declines, since mature forests are vital for owl breeding, as well as hold higher vole densities. ABSTRACT: Strong numerical and functional responses of owls to voles in cyclic environments are well known. However, there is insufficient knowledge from the boreonemoral region in particular, with depleted populations of small mammals. In this study, we describe the dynamics of the small mammal population in Latvia from 1991 to 2016 and link them to owl population characteristics. We used food niche breadth, number of fledglings, and population trends to lay out the numerical response of six owl species to dampened small mammal population cycles. We found temporarily increasing food niche breadth in tawny and Ural owls. There were no other responses in the tawny owl, whereas the breeding performance of three forest specialist species—pygmy, Tengmalm’s, and Ural owls—corresponded to the vole crash years in Fennoscandia. Moreover, the populations of forest specialist owls decreased, and the change in the Ural owl population can be attributed to the depletion of small mammal populations. We found evidence of a carry-over effect in the eagle owl arising from a strong correlation of declining breeding performance with the small mammal abundance indices in the previous autumn. We conclude that dampening of the small mammal population cycles is an important covariate of the likely effects of habitat destruction that needs to be investigated further, with stronger responses in more specialized (to prey or habitat) species.