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Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy
Purpose: While a pathologic complete response (pCR) is regarded as a surrogate endpoint for pos-itive outcomes in breast cancer (BC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), fore-casting the prognosis of non-pCR patients is still an open issue. This study aimed to create and evaluate nomog...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9965597/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36836483 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jpm13020249 |
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author | Lan, Ailin Li, Han Chen, Junru Shen, Meiying Jin, Yudi Dai, Yuran Jiang, Linshan Dai, Xin Peng, Yang Liu, Shengchun |
author_facet | Lan, Ailin Li, Han Chen, Junru Shen, Meiying Jin, Yudi Dai, Yuran Jiang, Linshan Dai, Xin Peng, Yang Liu, Shengchun |
author_sort | Lan, Ailin |
collection | PubMed |
description | Purpose: While a pathologic complete response (pCR) is regarded as a surrogate endpoint for pos-itive outcomes in breast cancer (BC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), fore-casting the prognosis of non-pCR patients is still an open issue. This study aimed to create and evaluate nomogram models for estimating the likelihood of disease-free survival (DFS) for non-pCR patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 607 non-pCR BC patients was conducted (2012–2018). After converting continuous variables to categorical variables, variables entering the model were progressively identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and then pre-NAC and post-NAC nomogram models were developed. Regarding their discrimination, ac-curacy, and clinical value, the performance of the models was evaluated by internal and external validation. Two risk assessments were performed for each patient based on two models; patients were separated into different risk groups based on the calculated cut-off values for each model, including low-risk (assessed by the pre-NAC model) to low-risk (assessed by the post-NAC model), high-risk to low-risk, low-risk to high-risk, and high-risk to high-risk groups. The DFS of different groups was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: Both pre-NAC and post-NAC nomogram models were built with clinical nodal (cN) status and estrogen receptor (ER), Ki67, and p53 status (all p < 0.05), showing good discrimination and calibration in both internal and external validation. We also assessed the performance of the two models in four subtypes, with the tri-ple-negative subtype showing the best prediction. Patients in the high-risk to high-risk subgroup have significantly poorer survival rates (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Two robust and effective nomo-grams were developed to personalize the prediction of DFS in non-pCR BC patients treated with NAC. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9965597 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-99655972023-02-26 Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Lan, Ailin Li, Han Chen, Junru Shen, Meiying Jin, Yudi Dai, Yuran Jiang, Linshan Dai, Xin Peng, Yang Liu, Shengchun J Pers Med Article Purpose: While a pathologic complete response (pCR) is regarded as a surrogate endpoint for pos-itive outcomes in breast cancer (BC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), fore-casting the prognosis of non-pCR patients is still an open issue. This study aimed to create and evaluate nomogram models for estimating the likelihood of disease-free survival (DFS) for non-pCR patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 607 non-pCR BC patients was conducted (2012–2018). After converting continuous variables to categorical variables, variables entering the model were progressively identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and then pre-NAC and post-NAC nomogram models were developed. Regarding their discrimination, ac-curacy, and clinical value, the performance of the models was evaluated by internal and external validation. Two risk assessments were performed for each patient based on two models; patients were separated into different risk groups based on the calculated cut-off values for each model, including low-risk (assessed by the pre-NAC model) to low-risk (assessed by the post-NAC model), high-risk to low-risk, low-risk to high-risk, and high-risk to high-risk groups. The DFS of different groups was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: Both pre-NAC and post-NAC nomogram models were built with clinical nodal (cN) status and estrogen receptor (ER), Ki67, and p53 status (all p < 0.05), showing good discrimination and calibration in both internal and external validation. We also assessed the performance of the two models in four subtypes, with the tri-ple-negative subtype showing the best prediction. Patients in the high-risk to high-risk subgroup have significantly poorer survival rates (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Two robust and effective nomo-grams were developed to personalize the prediction of DFS in non-pCR BC patients treated with NAC. MDPI 2023-01-29 /pmc/articles/PMC9965597/ /pubmed/36836483 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jpm13020249 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Lan, Ailin Li, Han Chen, Junru Shen, Meiying Jin, Yudi Dai, Yuran Jiang, Linshan Dai, Xin Peng, Yang Liu, Shengchun Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy |
title | Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy |
title_full | Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy |
title_fullStr | Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy |
title_full_unstemmed | Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy |
title_short | Nomograms for Predicting Disease-Free Survival Based on Core Needle Biopsy and Surgical Specimens in Female Breast Cancer Patients with Non-Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy |
title_sort | nomograms for predicting disease-free survival based on core needle biopsy and surgical specimens in female breast cancer patients with non-pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9965597/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36836483 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jpm13020249 |
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