Cargando…
Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador
Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important re-emergent swine diseases worldwide. Despite concerted control efforts in the Andean countries, the disease remains endemic in several areas, limiting production and trade opportunities. In this study, we aimed to determine the risk factors a...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9966056/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36851503 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v15020288 |
_version_ | 1784896921099304960 |
---|---|
author | Acosta, Alfredo Dietze, Klaas Baquero, Oswaldo Osowski, Germana Vizzotto Imbacuan, Christian Burbano, Alexandra Ferreira, Fernando Depner, Klaus |
author_facet | Acosta, Alfredo Dietze, Klaas Baquero, Oswaldo Osowski, Germana Vizzotto Imbacuan, Christian Burbano, Alexandra Ferreira, Fernando Depner, Klaus |
author_sort | Acosta, Alfredo |
collection | PubMed |
description | Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important re-emergent swine diseases worldwide. Despite concerted control efforts in the Andean countries, the disease remains endemic in several areas, limiting production and trade opportunities. In this study, we aimed to determine the risk factors and spatiotemporal implications associated with CSF in Ecuador. We analysed passive surveillance and vaccination campaign datasets from 2014 to 2020; Then, we structured a herd-level case–control study using a logistic and spatiotemporal Bayesian model. The results showed that the risk factors that increased the odds of CSF occurrence were the following: swill feeding (OR 8.53), time until notification (OR 2.44), introduction of new pigs during last month (OR 2.01) and lack of vaccination against CSF (OR 1.82). The spatiotemporal model showed that vaccination reduces the risk by 33%. According to the priority index, the intervention should focus on Morona Santiago and Los Rios provinces. In conclusion, the results highlight the complexity of the CSF control programs, the importance to improve the overall surveillance system and the need to inform decision-makers and stakeholders. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9966056 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-99660562023-02-26 Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador Acosta, Alfredo Dietze, Klaas Baquero, Oswaldo Osowski, Germana Vizzotto Imbacuan, Christian Burbano, Alexandra Ferreira, Fernando Depner, Klaus Viruses Article Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the most important re-emergent swine diseases worldwide. Despite concerted control efforts in the Andean countries, the disease remains endemic in several areas, limiting production and trade opportunities. In this study, we aimed to determine the risk factors and spatiotemporal implications associated with CSF in Ecuador. We analysed passive surveillance and vaccination campaign datasets from 2014 to 2020; Then, we structured a herd-level case–control study using a logistic and spatiotemporal Bayesian model. The results showed that the risk factors that increased the odds of CSF occurrence were the following: swill feeding (OR 8.53), time until notification (OR 2.44), introduction of new pigs during last month (OR 2.01) and lack of vaccination against CSF (OR 1.82). The spatiotemporal model showed that vaccination reduces the risk by 33%. According to the priority index, the intervention should focus on Morona Santiago and Los Rios provinces. In conclusion, the results highlight the complexity of the CSF control programs, the importance to improve the overall surveillance system and the need to inform decision-makers and stakeholders. MDPI 2023-01-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9966056/ /pubmed/36851503 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v15020288 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Acosta, Alfredo Dietze, Klaas Baquero, Oswaldo Osowski, Germana Vizzotto Imbacuan, Christian Burbano, Alexandra Ferreira, Fernando Depner, Klaus Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador |
title | Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador |
title_full | Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador |
title_fullStr | Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador |
title_full_unstemmed | Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador |
title_short | Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador |
title_sort | risk factors and spatiotemporal analysis of classical swine fever in ecuador |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9966056/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36851503 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v15020288 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT acostaalfredo riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador AT dietzeklaas riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador AT baquerooswaldo riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador AT osowskigermanavizzotto riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador AT imbacuanchristian riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador AT burbanoalexandra riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador AT ferreirafernando riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador AT depnerklaus riskfactorsandspatiotemporalanalysisofclassicalswinefeverinecuador |