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VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends
The analysis of the high volume of data spawned by web search engines on a daily basis allows scholars to scrutinize the relation between the user’s search preferences and impending facts. This study can be used in a variety of economics contexts. The purpose of this study is to determine whether it...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9968640/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s43067-023-00078-1 |
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author | Adu, Williams Kwasi Appiahene, Peter Afrifa, Stephen |
author_facet | Adu, Williams Kwasi Appiahene, Peter Afrifa, Stephen |
author_sort | Adu, Williams Kwasi |
collection | PubMed |
description | The analysis of the high volume of data spawned by web search engines on a daily basis allows scholars to scrutinize the relation between the user’s search preferences and impending facts. This study can be used in a variety of economics contexts. The purpose of this study is to determine whether it is possible to anticipate the unemployment rate by examining behavior. The method uses a cross-correlation technique to combine data from Google Trends with the World Bank's unemployment rate. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models for unemployment rate prediction are fit using the analyzed data. The models were assessed with the various evaluation metrics of mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), median absolute error (MedAE), and maximum error (ME). The average outcome of the various evaluation metrics proved the significant performance of the models. The ARIMA (MSE = 0.26, RMSE = 0.38, MAE = 0.30, MAPE = 7.07, MedAE = 0.25, ME = 0.77), ARIMAX (MSE = 0.22, RMSE = 0.25, MAE = 0.29, MAPE = 6.94, MedAE = 0.25, ME = 0.75), and VAR (MSE = 0.09, RMSE = 0.09, MAE = 0.20, MAPE = 4.65, MedAE = 0.20, ME = 0.42) achieved significant error margins. The outcome demonstrates that Google Trends estimators improved error reduction across the board when compared to model without them. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9968640 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-99686402023-02-28 VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends Adu, Williams Kwasi Appiahene, Peter Afrifa, Stephen Journal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol Review The analysis of the high volume of data spawned by web search engines on a daily basis allows scholars to scrutinize the relation between the user’s search preferences and impending facts. This study can be used in a variety of economics contexts. The purpose of this study is to determine whether it is possible to anticipate the unemployment rate by examining behavior. The method uses a cross-correlation technique to combine data from Google Trends with the World Bank's unemployment rate. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models for unemployment rate prediction are fit using the analyzed data. The models were assessed with the various evaluation metrics of mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), median absolute error (MedAE), and maximum error (ME). The average outcome of the various evaluation metrics proved the significant performance of the models. The ARIMA (MSE = 0.26, RMSE = 0.38, MAE = 0.30, MAPE = 7.07, MedAE = 0.25, ME = 0.77), ARIMAX (MSE = 0.22, RMSE = 0.25, MAE = 0.29, MAPE = 6.94, MedAE = 0.25, ME = 0.75), and VAR (MSE = 0.09, RMSE = 0.09, MAE = 0.20, MAPE = 4.65, MedAE = 0.20, ME = 0.42) achieved significant error margins. The outcome demonstrates that Google Trends estimators improved error reduction across the board when compared to model without them. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023-02-27 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9968640/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s43067-023-00078-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Review Adu, Williams Kwasi Appiahene, Peter Afrifa, Stephen VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends |
title | VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends |
title_full | VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends |
title_fullStr | VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends |
title_full_unstemmed | VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends |
title_short | VAR, ARIMAX and ARIMA models for nowcasting unemployment rate in Ghana using Google trends |
title_sort | var, arimax and arima models for nowcasting unemployment rate in ghana using google trends |
topic | Review |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9968640/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s43067-023-00078-1 |
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