Decoupling analysis and peak projection of manufacturing CO(2) emissions from the perspective of investment

Reducing carbon emissions has become an urgent task in China. As the category with the largest economic and emissions contribution to the industry, the carbon emissions research of the manufacturing industry is particularly important. This paper uses the LMDI method to decompose manufacturing carbon emissions into seven influencing factors (i.e., population, urbanization, economic development, investment share, energy intensity, energy structure and emission intensity), in order to explore the factors driving manufacturing carbon emissions during 2003–2018. Then, the paper analyzes the decoupling relationship between manufacturing investment and carbon emissions in 30 provinces. Finally, three scenarios are developed to project future manufacturing emissions at the provincial level up to 2035, and whether manufacturing emissions in 30 provinces can realize peak is discussed. The paper results in three main findings. First, we find that energy intensity played the most important role in decreasing the manufacturing emissions during the whole study period, while the economic development and investment share were the main effect promoting manufacturing carbon emissions. Second, China experienced a process from weak decoupling to strong decoupling between manufacturing invest and emissions. Third, China's manufacturing carbon emissions can only achieve the carbon peaking target in 2030 under the High scenario, and 7 provinces cannot reach the peak before 2035 under the three scenarios. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-03047-w.