A Novel Scoring System to Improve the Detection Efficiency of Pancreatic Cystic Lesions in the General Population

OBJECTIVE: Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are known risk factors for pancreatic cancer. Therefore, this study explored the predictors identifying PCLs in a general population and developed a scoring system to help more efficiently diagnose these entities during medical checkups. METHODS: We reviewed 9,369 examinees of abdominal ultrasound (AUS) during medical checkups between January 2013 and November 2019. Predictors of PCLs were identified using a multivariate logistic regression analysis, and we constructed a scoring system based on these predictors. RESULTS: PCLs were detected in 118 (1.3%). Age 50-59 years old [odds ratio (OR) 2.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-5.35], 60-69 years old (OR 3.91, 95% CI 1.86-8.26), and ≥70 years old (OR 10.5, 95% CI 5.03-21.7) as well as abdominal pain (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.14-3.00), alcohol consumption (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.03-2.89), a family history of pancreatic cancer (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.09-5.34), and pre-diabetes or diabetes (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.05-3.00) were predictors of PCLs. The following scores were assigned according to regression coefficients: age (50-59 years old, 1 point; 60-69 years old, 1.5 points; ≥70 years old, 2.5 points); abdominal pain, 1 point, alcohol consumption, 1 point; a family history of pancreatic cancer, 1 point; and pre-diabetes, 1 point. The PCL detection rate increased with the total score: 0.2% for total score 0 point, 5.4% for ≥4.0 points. The area under the curve of the scoring system was 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.79). CONCLUSION: Our scoring system allows the risk of PCLs to be determined and may help more efficiently diagnose these entities.