Resilience in keeping the balance between demand and capacity in the COVID-19 pandemic, a case study at a Swedish middle-sized hospital

BACKGROUND: In pandemics, it is critical to find a balance between healthcare demand, and capacity, taking into consideration the demands of the patients affected by the pandemic, as well as other patients (in elective or emergency care). The purpose of this paper is to suggest conceptual models for the capacity requirements at the emergency department, the inpatient care, and intensive care unit as well as a model for building staff capacity in pandemics. METHODS: This paper is based on a qualitative single case study at a middle-sized hospital in Sweden. The primary data are collected from 27 interviewees and inductively analyzed. RESULTS: The interviewees described a large difference between the immediate catastrophe scenario described in the emergency plan (which they had trained for), and the reality during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic had a much slower onset and lasted longer compared to, for example, an accident, and the healthcare demand fluctuated with the societal infection. The emergency department and inpatient care could create surge capacity by reducing elective care. Lower inflow of other emergency patients also helped to create surge capacity. The number of intensive care beds increased by 350% at the case hospital. At the same time, the capacity of the employees decreased due to infection, exhaustion, and fear. The study contributes to knowledge of conceptional models and key factors affecting the balance between demand and capacity. CONCLUSION: The framework suggests conceptual models for balancing surge capacity during a pandemic Health care practitioners need to provide assumptions of the key factors to find the balance between the demand and capacity corresponding to the reality and maintain the delivery of high-quality healthcare services.