Prediction of outcomes in subjects with type 2 diabetes and diabetic foot ulcers in Catalonian primary care centers: a multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND: Diabetic foot and lower limb complications are an important cause of morbidity and mortality among persons with diabetes mellitus. Very few studies have been carried out in the primary care settings. The main objective was to assess the prognosis of diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) in patients from primary care centers in Catalonia, Spain, during a 12-month follow-up period. METHODS: We included participants with type 2 diabetes and a new DFU between February 2018 and July 2019. We estimated the incidence of mortality, amputations, recurrence and healing of DFU during the follow-up period. A multivariable analysis was performed to assess the association of these outcomes and risk factors. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 9.7% of participants died, 12.1% required amputation, 29.2% had a DFU recurrence, and 73.8% healed. Having a caregiver, ischemia or infection were associated with higher mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]:3.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.05; 12.61, HR: 6.41, 95%CI: 2.25; 18.30, HR: 3.06, 95%CI: 1.05; 8.94, respectively). Diabetic retinopathy was an independent risk factor for amputation events (HR: 3.39, 95%CI: 1.37; 8.39). Increasing age decreased the risk for a DFU recurrence, while having a caregiver increased the risk for this event (HR: 0.97, 95%CI: 0.94; 0.99). The need for a caregiver and infection decreased the probability of DFU healing (HR: 0.57, 95%CI: 0.39; 0.83, HR: 0.64, 95%CI: 0.42; 0.98, respectively). High scores for PEDIS (≥7) or SINBAD (≥3) were associated with an increased risk for DFU recurrence and a lower probability of DFU healing, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We observed high morbidity among subjects with a new DFU in our primary healthcare facilities. Peripheral arterial disease, infection, and microvascular complications increased the risk of poor clinical outcomes among subjects with DFU. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13047-023-00602-6.