Cargando…

Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia

With changing climate, the boreal forest could potentially migrate north and become threatened by droughts in the south. However, whether larches, the dominant tree species in eastern Siberia, can adapt to novel situations is largely unknown but is crucial for predicting future population dynamics....

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gloy, Josias, Herzschuh, Ulrike, Kruse, Stefan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier] 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9972785/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37013221
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110278
_version_ 1784898390264381440
author Gloy, Josias
Herzschuh, Ulrike
Kruse, Stefan
author_facet Gloy, Josias
Herzschuh, Ulrike
Kruse, Stefan
author_sort Gloy, Josias
collection PubMed
description With changing climate, the boreal forest could potentially migrate north and become threatened by droughts in the south. However, whether larches, the dominant tree species in eastern Siberia, can adapt to novel situations is largely unknown but is crucial for predicting future population dynamics. Exploring variable traits and trait adaptation through inheritance in an individual-based model can improve our understanding and help future projections. We updated the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator), used for forest predictions in Eastern Siberia, with trait value variation and incorporated inheritance of parental values to their offspring. Forcing the model with both past and future climate projections, we simulated two areas – the expanding northern treeline and a southerly area experiencing drought. While the specific trait of ‘seed weight’ regulates migration, the abstract ‘drought resistance’ protects stands. We show that trait variation with inheritance leads to an increase in migration rate (∼ 3% area increase until 2100). The drought resistance simulations show that, under increasing stress, including adaptive traits leads to larger surviving populations (17% of threatened under RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway)). We show that with the increase expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario vast areas (80% of the extrapolated area) of larch forest are threatened and could disappear due to drought as adaptation plays only a minor role under strong warming. We conclude that variable traits facilitate the availability of variants under environmental changes. Inheritance allows populations to adapt to environments and promote successful traits, which leads to populations that can spread faster and be more resilient, provided the changes are not too drastic in both time and magnitude. We show that trait variation and inheritance contribute to more accurate models that can improve our understanding of responses of boreal forests to global change.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9972785
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher Elsevier]
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-99727852023-04-01 Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia Gloy, Josias Herzschuh, Ulrike Kruse, Stefan Ecol Modell Article With changing climate, the boreal forest could potentially migrate north and become threatened by droughts in the south. However, whether larches, the dominant tree species in eastern Siberia, can adapt to novel situations is largely unknown but is crucial for predicting future population dynamics. Exploring variable traits and trait adaptation through inheritance in an individual-based model can improve our understanding and help future projections. We updated the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator), used for forest predictions in Eastern Siberia, with trait value variation and incorporated inheritance of parental values to their offspring. Forcing the model with both past and future climate projections, we simulated two areas – the expanding northern treeline and a southerly area experiencing drought. While the specific trait of ‘seed weight’ regulates migration, the abstract ‘drought resistance’ protects stands. We show that trait variation with inheritance leads to an increase in migration rate (∼ 3% area increase until 2100). The drought resistance simulations show that, under increasing stress, including adaptive traits leads to larger surviving populations (17% of threatened under RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway)). We show that with the increase expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario vast areas (80% of the extrapolated area) of larch forest are threatened and could disappear due to drought as adaptation plays only a minor role under strong warming. We conclude that variable traits facilitate the availability of variants under environmental changes. Inheritance allows populations to adapt to environments and promote successful traits, which leads to populations that can spread faster and be more resilient, provided the changes are not too drastic in both time and magnitude. We show that trait variation and inheritance contribute to more accurate models that can improve our understanding of responses of boreal forests to global change. Elsevier] 2023-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9972785/ /pubmed/37013221 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110278 Text en © 2023 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Gloy, Josias
Herzschuh, Ulrike
Kruse, Stefan
Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia
title Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia
title_full Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia
title_fullStr Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia
title_full_unstemmed Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia
title_short Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia
title_sort evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in siberia
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9972785/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37013221
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110278
work_keys_str_mv AT gloyjosias evolutionaryadaptationoftreesandmodelledfuturelarchforestextentinsiberia
AT herzschuhulrike evolutionaryadaptationoftreesandmodelledfuturelarchforestextentinsiberia
AT krusestefan evolutionaryadaptationoftreesandmodelledfuturelarchforestextentinsiberia