Effect of the ratios of estradiol increase on the outcome of in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer with antagonist regimens: a single center retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The outcome of in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF) is often determined according to follicle and estradiol levels following gonadotropin stimulation. In previous studies, although most of them analyzed the estrogen level from ovaries or the average estrogen level of a single follicle, there was no study on the ratio of estrogen increase, which was also correlated with pregnancy outcomes in the clinic. This study aimed to make timely adjustments to follow-up medication to improve clinical outcomes based on the potential value of estradiol growth rate. METHODS: We comprehensively analyzed estrogen growth during the entire ovarian stimulation period. Serum estradiol levels were measured on the day of gonadotropin treatment (Gn1), five days later (Gn5), eight days later (Gn8), and on the trigger day (HCG). This ratio was used to determine the increase in estradiol levels. According to the ratio of estradiol increase, the patients were divided into four groups: A1 (Gn5/Gn1 ≤ 6.44), A2 (6.44 < Gn5/Gn1 ≤ 10.62), A3 (10.62 < Gn5/Gn1 ≤ 21.33), and A4 (Gn5/Gn1 > 21.33); B1 (Gn8/Gn5 ≤ 2.39), B2 (2.39 < Gn8/Gn5 ≤ 3.03), B3 (3.03 < Gn8/Gn5 ≤ 3.84), and B4 (Gn8/Gn5 > 3.84). We analyzed and compared the relationship between data in each group and pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: In the statistical analysis, the estradiol levels of Gn5 (P = 0.029, P = 0.042), Gn8 (P < 0.001, P = 0.001), and HCG (P < 0.001, P = 0.002), as well as Gn5/Gn1 (P = 0.004, P = 0.006), Gn8/Gn5 (P = 0.001, P = 0.002), and HCG/Gn1 (P < 0.001, P < 0.001) both had clinical guiding significance, and lower one significantly reduced the pregnancy rate. The outcomes were positively linked to groups A (P = 0.036, P = 0.043) and B (P = 0.014, P = 0.013), respectively. The logistical regression analysis revealed that group A1 (OR = 0.376 [0.182–0.779]; P = 0.008*, OR = 0.401 [0.188–0.857]; P = 0.018*) and B1 (OR = 0.363 [0.179–0.735]; P = 0.005*, OR = 0.389 [0.187–0.808]; P = 0.011*) had opposite influence on outcomes. CONCLUSION: Maintaining a serum estradiol increase ratio of at least 6.44 on Gn5/Gn1 and 2.39 on Gn8/Gn5 may result in a higher pregnancy rate, especially in young people.