CT texture analysis in predicting treatment response and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with transarterial chemoembolization using random forest models

BACKGROUND: Using texture features derived from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) combined with general imaging features as well as clinical information to predict treatment response and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment. METHODS: From January 2014 to November 2022, 289 patients with HCC who underwent TACE were retrospectively reviewed. Their clinical information was documented. Their treatment-naïve contrast-enhanced CTs were retrieved and reviewed by two independent radiologists. Four general imaging features were evaluated. Texture features were extracted based on the regions of interest (ROIs) drawn on the slice with the largest axial diameter of all lesions using Pyradiomics v3.0.1. After excluding features with low reproducibility and low predictive value, the remaining features were selected for further analyses. The data were randomly divided in a ratio of 8:2 for model training and testing. Random forest classifiers were built to predict patient response to TACE treatment. Random survival forest models were constructed to predict overall survival (OS) and progress-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: We retrospectively evaluated 289 patients (55.4 ± 12.4 years old) with HCC treated with TACE. Twenty features, including 2 clinical features (ALT and AFP levels), 1 general imaging feature (presence or absence of portal vein thrombus) and 17 texture features, were included in model construction. The random forest classifier achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.947 with an accuracy of 89.5% for predicting treatment response. The random survival forest showed good predictive performance with out-of-bag error rate of 0.347 (0.374) and a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of 0.170 (0.067) for the prediction of OS (PFS). CONCLUSIONS: Random forest algorithm based on texture features combined with general imaging features and clinical information is a robust method for predicting prognosis in patients with HCC treated with TACE, which may help avoid additional examinations and assist in treatment planning. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10620-z.