Cargando…

Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria

Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rab...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Mshelbwala, Philip P., J. Soares Magalhães, Ricardo, Weese, J. Scott, Ahmed, Nasir O., Rupprecht, Charles E., Clark, Nicholas J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9983858/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36809362
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147
_version_ 1784900629971337216
author Mshelbwala, Philip P.
J. Soares Magalhães, Ricardo
Weese, J. Scott
Ahmed, Nasir O.
Rupprecht, Charles E.
Clark, Nicholas J.
author_facet Mshelbwala, Philip P.
J. Soares Magalhães, Ricardo
Weese, J. Scott
Ahmed, Nasir O.
Rupprecht, Charles E.
Clark, Nicholas J.
author_sort Mshelbwala, Philip P.
collection PubMed
description Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rabies hinders advocacy and resource allocation for effective prevention and control. We obtained 20 years of dog bite surveillance data across 19 major hospitals in Abuja, incorporating modifiable and environmental covariates. To overcome the challenge of missing information, we used a Bayesian approach with expert-solicited prior information to jointly model missing covariate data and the additive effects of the covariates on the predicted probability of human death after rabies virus exposure. Only 1155 cases of dog bites were recorded throughout the study period, out of which 4.2% (N = 49) died of rabies. The odds for risk of human death were predicted to decrease among individuals who were bitten by owned dogs compared to those bitten by free-roaming dogs. Similarly, there was a predicted decrease in the probability of human death among victims bitten by vaccinated dogs compared to those bitten by unvaccinated dogs. The odds for the risk of human death after bitten individuals received rabies prophylaxis were predicted to decrease compared to no prophylaxis. We demonstrate the practical application of a regularised Bayesian approach to model sparse dog bite surveillance data to uncover risk factors for human rabies, with broader applications in other endemic rabies settings with similar profiles. The low reporting observed in this study underscores the need for community engagement and investment in surveillance to increase data availability. Better data on bite cases will help to estimate the burden of rabies in Nigeria and would be important to plan effective prevention and control of this disease.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9983858
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-99838582023-03-04 Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria Mshelbwala, Philip P. J. Soares Magalhães, Ricardo Weese, J. Scott Ahmed, Nasir O. Rupprecht, Charles E. Clark, Nicholas J. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rabies hinders advocacy and resource allocation for effective prevention and control. We obtained 20 years of dog bite surveillance data across 19 major hospitals in Abuja, incorporating modifiable and environmental covariates. To overcome the challenge of missing information, we used a Bayesian approach with expert-solicited prior information to jointly model missing covariate data and the additive effects of the covariates on the predicted probability of human death after rabies virus exposure. Only 1155 cases of dog bites were recorded throughout the study period, out of which 4.2% (N = 49) died of rabies. The odds for risk of human death were predicted to decrease among individuals who were bitten by owned dogs compared to those bitten by free-roaming dogs. Similarly, there was a predicted decrease in the probability of human death among victims bitten by vaccinated dogs compared to those bitten by unvaccinated dogs. The odds for the risk of human death after bitten individuals received rabies prophylaxis were predicted to decrease compared to no prophylaxis. We demonstrate the practical application of a regularised Bayesian approach to model sparse dog bite surveillance data to uncover risk factors for human rabies, with broader applications in other endemic rabies settings with similar profiles. The low reporting observed in this study underscores the need for community engagement and investment in surveillance to increase data availability. Better data on bite cases will help to estimate the burden of rabies in Nigeria and would be important to plan effective prevention and control of this disease. Public Library of Science 2023-02-21 /pmc/articles/PMC9983858/ /pubmed/36809362 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 Text en © 2023 Mshelbwala et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Mshelbwala, Philip P.
J. Soares Magalhães, Ricardo
Weese, J. Scott
Ahmed, Nasir O.
Rupprecht, Charles E.
Clark, Nicholas J.
Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria
title Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria
title_full Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria
title_fullStr Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria
title_short Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria
title_sort modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in abuja, nigeria
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9983858/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36809362
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147
work_keys_str_mv AT mshelbwalaphilipp modellingmodifiablefactorsassociatedwiththeprobabilityofhumanrabiesdeathsamongselfreportedvictimsofdogbitesinabujanigeria
AT jsoaresmagalhaesricardo modellingmodifiablefactorsassociatedwiththeprobabilityofhumanrabiesdeathsamongselfreportedvictimsofdogbitesinabujanigeria
AT weesejscott modellingmodifiablefactorsassociatedwiththeprobabilityofhumanrabiesdeathsamongselfreportedvictimsofdogbitesinabujanigeria
AT ahmednasiro modellingmodifiablefactorsassociatedwiththeprobabilityofhumanrabiesdeathsamongselfreportedvictimsofdogbitesinabujanigeria
AT rupprechtcharlese modellingmodifiablefactorsassociatedwiththeprobabilityofhumanrabiesdeathsamongselfreportedvictimsofdogbitesinabujanigeria
AT clarknicholasj modellingmodifiablefactorsassociatedwiththeprobabilityofhumanrabiesdeathsamongselfreportedvictimsofdogbitesinabujanigeria