Establishment of a single-center-based early prognostic scoring system for Guillain-Barré syndrome

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have developed clinical prognostic models for Guillain-Barré syndrome including EGOS and mEGOS, they have good reliability and accuracy, but individual entries are poor. This study aims to establish a scoring system to predict the early prognosis, in order to provide additional treatment for patients with poor prognosis and shorten the length of hospital stay. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed risk factors affecting the short-term prognosis of Guillain-Barré syndrome, and developed a scoring system for early determination of disease prognosis. Sixty two patients were divided into two groups based on the Hughes GBS disability score at discharge. Groups were compared for differences in gender, age at onset, antecedent infection, cranial nerve involvement, pulmonary infection, mechanical ventilation support, hyponatremia, hypoproteinemia, impaired fasting glucose, and peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Statistically significant factors were included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a scoring system to predict the short-term prognosis was established based on the regression coefficients. The receiver operating characteristic curve of this scoring system was plotted, and the area under the ROC curve was calculated to assess the accuracy of the prediction model. RESULTS: Univariate analysis revealed that age at onset, antecedent infection, pneumonia, mechanical ventilation support, hypoalbuminemia, hyponatremia, impaired fasting glucose, and elevated peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were risk factors for poor short-term prognosis. The above factors were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis, and pneumonia, hypoalbuminemia, and hyponatremia could be used as independent predictors. The receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted with a calculated area under the ROC curve of 82.2% (95% CI 0.775—0.950, P < 0.0001). The best cut-off value for the model score was 2, with a sensitivity of 0.9091, a specificity of 0.7255, and a Youden index of 0.6346. CONCLUSION: Pneumonia, hyponatremia, and hypoalbuminemia were independent risk factors for poorer short-term prognosis in patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome. The short-term prognosis scoring system of Guillain-Barré syndrome we constructed using these variables had some predictive value, and the short-term prognosis with quantitative scores of 2 or more was worse. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-023-03143-4.