Association of Mitral Regurgitation with Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Critically Ill Noncardiac Surgery Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

PURPOSE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in critically ill patients and can have serious consequences. Postoperative AF (POAF) in critically ill patients following noncardiac surgery has been understudied, contrary to cardiac procedures. Mitral regurgitation (MR) is associated with left ventricular dysfunction, which might contribute to the occurrence of AF in postoperative critically ill patients. This study aimed to investigate the association between MR and POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients and establish a new nomogram for the prediction of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort of 2474 patients who underwent thoracic and general surgery was enrolled in this study. Data on preoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), electrocardiogram (ECG), and several commonly utilized scoring systems (CHA2DS2‐VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST) and baseline clinical data were collected. Independent predictors were selected by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was constructed for POAF within 7 days after postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The ability of the MR-nomogram and other scoring systems to predict POAF was compared by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additional contributions were evaluated by integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis. RESULTS: A total of 213 (8.6%) patients developed POAF within 7 days after ICU admission. Compared to CHA2DS2‐VASc, HATCH, COM-AF, HART, and C2HEST scoring systems, MR-nomogram showed better predictive ability for POAF with an area under the ROC curve of 0.824 (95% confidence interval: 0.805–0.842, p < 0.001). The improvement of the MR-nomogram in predictive value was supported by NRI and IDI analysis. The net benefit of the MR nomogram was maximal in DCA. CONCLUSION: MR is an independent risk factor of POAF in critically ill noncardiac surgery patients. The nomogram predicted POAF better than other scoring systems.