Cargando…

Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination

This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyze...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Peter, Olumuyiwa James, Panigoro, Hasan S., Abidemi, Afeez, Ojo, Mayowa M., Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9986676/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36877326
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10441-023-09460-y
_version_ 1784901222417825792
author Peter, Olumuyiwa James
Panigoro, Hasan S.
Abidemi, Afeez
Ojo, Mayowa M.
Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun
author_facet Peter, Olumuyiwa James
Panigoro, Hasan S.
Abidemi, Afeez
Ojo, Mayowa M.
Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun
author_sort Peter, Olumuyiwa James
collection PubMed
description This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyzed and the threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained. We investigate the equilibrium stability of the system, and the COVID-free equilibrium is said to be locally asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number is less than unity, and unstable otherwise. Using the least-squares method, the model is calibrated based on the cumulative number of COVID-19 reported cases and available information about the mass vaccine administration in Malaysia between the 24th of February 2021 and February 2022. Following the model fitting and estimation of the parameter values, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) to determine the most influential parameters on the threshold quantities. The result shows that the effective transmission rate [Formula: see text] , the rate of first vaccine dose [Formula: see text] , the second dose vaccination rate [Formula: see text] and the recovery rate due to the second dose of vaccination [Formula: see text] are the most influential of all the model parameters. We further investigate the impact of these parameters by performing a numerical simulation on the developed COVID-19 model. The result of the study shows that adhering to the preventive measures has a huge impact on reducing the spread of the disease in the population. Particularly, an increase in both the first and second dose vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals, thus reducing the disease burden in the population.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9986676
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher Springer Netherlands
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-99866762023-03-06 Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination Peter, Olumuyiwa James Panigoro, Hasan S. Abidemi, Afeez Ojo, Mayowa M. Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun Acta Biotheor Regular Article This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyzed and the threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained. We investigate the equilibrium stability of the system, and the COVID-free equilibrium is said to be locally asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number is less than unity, and unstable otherwise. Using the least-squares method, the model is calibrated based on the cumulative number of COVID-19 reported cases and available information about the mass vaccine administration in Malaysia between the 24th of February 2021 and February 2022. Following the model fitting and estimation of the parameter values, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) to determine the most influential parameters on the threshold quantities. The result shows that the effective transmission rate [Formula: see text] , the rate of first vaccine dose [Formula: see text] , the second dose vaccination rate [Formula: see text] and the recovery rate due to the second dose of vaccination [Formula: see text] are the most influential of all the model parameters. We further investigate the impact of these parameters by performing a numerical simulation on the developed COVID-19 model. The result of the study shows that adhering to the preventive measures has a huge impact on reducing the spread of the disease in the population. Particularly, an increase in both the first and second dose vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals, thus reducing the disease burden in the population. Springer Netherlands 2023-03-06 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9986676/ /pubmed/36877326 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10441-023-09460-y Text en © Prof. Dr. Jan van der Hoeven stichting voor theoretische biologie 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Regular Article
Peter, Olumuyiwa James
Panigoro, Hasan S.
Abidemi, Afeez
Ojo, Mayowa M.
Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun
Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination
title Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination
title_full Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination
title_fullStr Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination
title_short Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination
title_sort mathematical model of covid-19 pandemic with double dose vaccination
topic Regular Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9986676/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36877326
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10441-023-09460-y
work_keys_str_mv AT peterolumuyiwajames mathematicalmodelofcovid19pandemicwithdoubledosevaccination
AT panigorohasans mathematicalmodelofcovid19pandemicwithdoubledosevaccination
AT abidemiafeez mathematicalmodelofcovid19pandemicwithdoubledosevaccination
AT ojomayowam mathematicalmodelofcovid19pandemicwithdoubledosevaccination
AT oguntolufestusabiodun mathematicalmodelofcovid19pandemicwithdoubledosevaccination