Association between triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and type 2 diabetes risk in Japanese

Abnormal lipid metabolism is known to increases the risk for metabolic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM). The relationship between baseline ratio of triglyceride to HDL cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) and T2DM in Japanese adults was investigated in this study. Our secondary analysis included 8419 male and 7034 female Japanese subjects who were free of diabetes at baseline. The correlation between baseline TG/HDL-C and T2DM was analyzed by a proportional risk regression model, the nonlinear correlation between baseline TG/HDL-C and T2DM was analyzed by a generalized additive model (GAM), and the threshold effect analysis was performed by a segmented regression model. We conducted subgroup analyses in different populations. During the median 5.39 years follow-up, 373 participants, 286 males and 87 females, developed diabetes mellitus. After full adjustment for confounders, the baseline TG/HDL-C ratio positively correlated with the risk of diabetes (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.09–1.3), and smoothed curve fitting and two-stage linear regression analysis revealed a J-shaped relationship between baseline TG/HDL-C and T2DM. The inflection point for baseline TG/HDL-C was 0.35. baseline TG/HDL-C > 0.35 was positively associated with the development of T2DM (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.10–1.31). Subgroup analysis showed no significant differences in the effect between TG/HDL-C and T2DM in different populations. A J-shaped relationship was observed between baseline TG/HDL-C and T2DM risk in the Japanese population. When TG/HDL-C was higher than 0.35, there was a positive relationship between baseline TG/HDL-C and the incidence of diabetes mellitus.