Developing a predictive model for clinically significant prostate cancer by combining age, PSA density, and mpMRI

PURPOSE: The study aimed to construct a predictive model for clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) and investigate its clinical efficacy to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies. METHODS: A total of 847 patients from institute 1 were included in cohort 1 for model development. Cohort 2 included a total of 208 patients from institute 2 for external validation of the model. The data obtained were used for retrospective analysis. The results of magnetic resonance imaging were obtained using Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System version 2.1 (PI-RADS v2.1). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine significant predictors of csPCa. The diagnostic performances were compared using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analyses. RESULTS: Age, prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD), and PI-RADS v2.1 scores were used as predictors of the model. In the development cohort, the areas under the ROC curve (AUC) for csPCa about age, PSAD, PI-RADS v2.1 scores, and the model were 0.675, 0.823, 0.875, and 0.938, respectively. In the external validation cohort, the AUC values predicted by the four were 0.619, 0.811, 0.863, and 0.914, respectively. Decision curve analysis revealed that the clear net benefit of the model was higher than PI-RADS v2.1 scores and PSAD. The model significantly reduced unnecessary prostate biopsies within the risk threshold of > 10%. CONCLUSIONS: In both internal and external validation, the model constructed by combining age, PSAD, and PI-RADS v2.1 scores exhibited excellent clinical efficacy and can be utilized to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-023-02959-1.