Development and validation of a survival nomogram and calculator for male patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer treated with abiraterone acetate and/or enzalutamide

BACKGROUND: Despite the widespread availability of medication choices for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), biomarkers to predict the efficacy of each mCRPC treatment have not yet been established. This study developed a prognostic nomogram and a calculator to predict the prognosis of patients with mCRPC who received abiraterone acetate (ABI) and/or enzalutamide (ENZ). METHODS: In total, 568 patients with mCRPC who underwent ABI and/or ENZ between 2012 and 2017 were enrolled. A prognostic nomogram based on the risk factors was developed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and clinically important factors. The discriminatory ability of the nomogram was assessed according to the concordance index (C-index). A 5-fold cross-validation was repeated 2000 times to estimate the C-index, and the means of the estimated C-index for the training and validation sets were determined. A calculator based on this nomogram was then developed. RESULTS: The median overall survival (OS) was 24.7 months. Multivariate analysis showed that the time to CRPC, pre-chemotherapy, baseline prostate-specific antigen, baseline alkaline phosphatase, and baseline lactate dehydrogenase levels were independent risk factors for OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.521, 1.681, 1.439, 1.827, and 12.123, p = 0.001, 0.001, < 0.001, 0.019, and < 0.001, respectively). The C-index was 0.72 in the training cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a nomogram and calculator to predict OS in Japanese patients with mCRPC who received ABI and/or ENZ. Reproducible prognostic prediction calculators for mCRPC will facilitate greater accessibility for clinical use. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10700-0.