A Prognostic Score for the Prediction of Local Treatment Failure in Plaque Brachytherapy of Uveal Melanoma

PURPOSE: To develop a prognostic score that correlates to a low, medium, and high incidence of treatment failure after plaque brachytherapy of uveal melanoma (UM). METHODS AND MATERIALS: All patients who have received plaque brachytherapy for posterior UM at St. Erik Eye Hospital in Stockholm, Sweden from 1995 through 2019 were included (n = 1636). Treatment failure was defined as tumor recurrence, lack of tumor regression, or any other condition requiring a secondary transpupillary thermotherapy (TTT), plaque brachytherapy, or enucleation. The total sample was randomized into 1 training and 1 validation cohort, and a prognostic score for the risk for treatment failure was developed. RESULTS: In multivariate Cox regression, low visual acuity, tumor distance to the optic disc ≤2 mm, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, and a tumor apical thickness of >4 (for Ruthenium-106) or >9 mm (for Iodine-125) were independent predictors of treatment failure. No reliable threshold could be identified for tumor diameter or cancer stage. In competing risk analyses of the validation cohort, the cumulative incidence of treatment failure, as well as of secondary enucleation, increased with the prognostic score: In the low, intermediate, and high-risk classes, the 10-year incidence of treatment failure was 19, 28, and 35% and of secondary enucleation 7, 19, and 25 %, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Low visual acuity, American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, tumor thickness, and tumor distance to the optic disc are independent predictors of treatment failure after plaque brachytherapy for UM. A prognostic score was devised that identifies low, medium, and high risk for treatment failure.