Developing an m5C regulator–mediated RNA methylation modification signature to predict prognosis and immunotherapy efficacy in rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: Currently, a very small number of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) respond to immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment. Therefore, there is an urgent need to investigate effective biomarkers to determine the responsiveness to ICI treatment. Recently, aberrant 5-methylcytosine (m(5)C) RNA modification has emerged as a key player in the pathogenesis of cancer. Thus, we aimed to explore the predictive signature based on m(5)C regulator–related genes for characterizing the immune landscapes and predicting the prognosis and response to therapies. METHODS: The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort was used as the training set, while GEO data sets, real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) analysis from paired frozen tissues, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) data from tissue microarray (TMA) were used for validation. We constructed a novel signature based on three m(5)C regulator–related genes in patients with rectal adenocarcinoma (READ) using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox regression and unsupervised consensus clustering analyses. Additionally, we correlated the three-gene signature risk model with the tumor immune microenvironment, immunotherapy efficiency, and potential applicable drugs. RESULTS: The m(5)C methylation–based signature was an independent prognostic factor, where low-risk patients showed a stronger immunoreactivity phenotype and a superior response to ICI therapy. Conversely, the high-risk patients had enriched pathways of cancer hallmarks and presented immune-suppressive state, which demonstrated that they are more insensitive to immunotherapy. Additionally, the signature markedly correlated with drug susceptibility. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a reliable m(5)C regulator–based risk model to predict the prognosis, clarify the molecular and tumor microenvironment status, and identify patients who would benefit from immunotherapy or chemotherapy. Our study could provide vital guidance to improve prognostic stratification and optimize personalized therapeutic strategies for patients with rectal cancer.