Predictive value of estimated pulse wave velocity for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in individuals with obesity

BACKGROUND: Estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) has revealed excellent performance in predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, whether ePWV predicts all-cause mortality and CVD mortality in populations with obesity remains elusive. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort including 49,116 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005 to 2014. Arterial stiffness was evaluated by ePWV. Weighted univariate, multivariate Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to assess the effects of ePWV on the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. In addition, the two-piecewise linear regression analysis was used to describe the trend of ePWV affecting mortality and identify the thresholds that significantly affect mortality. RESULTS: A total of 9929 participants with obesity with ePWV data and 833 deaths were enrolled. Based on the multivariate Cox regression results, the high ePWV group had a 1.25-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality and a 5.76-fold higher risk of CVD mortality than the low-ePWV group. All-cause and CVD mortality risk increased by 123% and 44%, respectively, for every 1 m/s increase in ePWV. ROC results showed that ePWV had an excellent accuracy in predicting all-cause mortality (AUC = 0.801) and CVD mortality (AUC = 0.806). Furthermore, the two-piecewise linear regression analysis exhibited that the minimal threshold at which ePWV affected participant mortality was 6.7 m/s for all-cause mortality and 7.2 m/s for CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: ePWV was an independent risk factor for mortality in populations with obesity. High ePWV levels were associated with an increased all-cause and CVD mortality. Thus, ePWV can be considered a novel biomarker to assess mortality risk in patients with obesity. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13098-023-01011-2.