Prevalence and factors associated with pediatric HIV therapy failure in a tertiary hospital in Asmara, Eritrea: A 15-year retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: Treatment failure (TF) in HIV infected children is a major concern in resource-constrained settings in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study investigated the prevalence, incidence, and factors associated with first-line cART failure using the virologic (plasma viral load), immunologic and clinical criteria among HIV-infected children. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of children (<18 years of age on treatment for a period of > 6 months) enrolled in the pediatric HIV/AIDs treatment program at Orotta National Pediatric Referral Hospital from January 2005 to December 2020 was conducted. Data were summarized using percentages, medians (± interquartile range (IQR)), or mean ± standard deviation (SD). Where appropriate, Pearson Chi-Squire (χ2) tests or Fishers exacts test, Kaplan–Meier (KM) estimates, and unadjusted and adjusted Cox-proportional hazard regression models were employed. RESULTS: Out of 724 children with at least 24 weeks’ follow-up 279 experienced therapy failure (TF) making prevalence of 38.5% (95% CI 35–42.2) over a median follow-up of 72 months (IQR, 49–112 months), with a crude incidence of failure of 6.5 events per 100- person-years (95% CI 5.8–7.3). In the adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, independent factors of TF were suboptimal adherence (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) = 2.9, 95% CI 2.2–3.9, p < 0.001), cART backbone other than Zidovudine and Lamivudine (aHR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.2, p = 0.01), severe immunosuppression (aHR = 1.5, 95% CI 1–2.4, p = 0.04), wasting or weight for height z-score < -2 (aHR = 1.5, 95% CI 1.1–2.1, p = 0.02), late cART initiation calendar years (aHR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.1–1.3, p < 0.001), and older age at cART initiation (aHR = 1.01, 95% CI 1–1.02, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Seven in one hundred children on first-line cART are likely to develop TF every year. To address this problem, access to viral load tests, adherence support, integration nutritional care into the clinic, and research on factors associated with suboptimal adherence should be prioritized.