Serum biomarkers and anti-flavivirus antibodies at presentation as indicators of severe dengue

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most common vector-borne viral disease worldwide. Most cases are mild, but some evolve into severe dengue (SD), with high lethality. Therefore, it is important to identify biomarkers of severe disease to improve outcomes and judiciously utilize resources. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: One hundred forty-five confirmed dengue cases (median age, 42; range <1–91 years), enrolled from February 2018 to March 2020, were selected from an ongoing study of suspected arboviral infections in metropolitan Asunción, Paraguay. Cases included dengue virus types 1, 2, and 4, and severity was categorized according to the 2009 World Health Organization guidelines. Testing for anti-dengue virus IgM and IgG and serum biomarkers (lipopolysaccharide binding protein and chymase) was performed on acute-phase sera in plate-based ELISAs; in addition, a multiplex ELISA platform was used to measure anti-dengue virus and anti-Zika virus IgM and IgG. Complete blood counts and chemistries were performed at the discretion of the care team. Age, gender, and pre-existing comorbidities were associated with SD vs. dengue with/without warning signs in logistic regression with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.07 (per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 1.11), 0.20 (female; 0.05,0.77), and 2.09 (presence; 1.26, 3.48) respectively. In binary logistic regression, for every unit increase in anti-DENV IgG in the multiplex platform, odds of SD increased by 2.54 (1.19–5.42). Platelet count, lymphocyte percent, and elevated chymase were associated with SD in a combined logistic regression model with ORs of 0.99 (1,000/μL; 0.98,0.999), 0.92 (%; 0.86,0.98), and 1.17 (mg/mL; 1.03,1.33) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple, readily available factors were associated with SD in this population. These findings will aid in the early detection of potentially severe dengue cases and inform the development of new prognostics for use in acute-phase and serial samples from dengue cases.