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Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020

Observed synoptic anomalies in connection with China’s extreme precipitation events/floods in the summers of 1982/83, 1997/98, 2010, 2014, 2015/16, and 2020 are studied. These events mainly occur within the middle and lower Yangtze basins. The dominant moisture source is the Northern Indian Ocean an...

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Autores principales: Lee, Y. C., Wenig, M. O., Chan, K. L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9998249/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37213470
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11869-022-01295-9
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author Lee, Y. C.
Wenig, M. O.
Chan, K. L.
author_facet Lee, Y. C.
Wenig, M. O.
Chan, K. L.
author_sort Lee, Y. C.
collection PubMed
description Observed synoptic anomalies in connection with China’s extreme precipitation events/floods in the summers of 1982/83, 1997/98, 2010, 2014, 2015/16, and 2020 are studied. These events mainly occur within the middle and lower Yangtze basins. The dominant moisture source is the Northern Indian Ocean and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Both of these bodies of water have warmed since 1979. In East Asia, the strong land‐sea thermal contrast driven by global warming drives the increased East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation, which develops deep convective precipitation. The total precipitable water in the Indo-Pacific region has also been increasing since 1979. The intense southwest Indian monsoon transports moist air to the Yangtze basin in mid-June and forms the Meiyu (plum rain) front. Strengthened Okhotsk/Ural blocking highs in East and West Asia, as well as the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the South Asian high (SAH) over south Eurasia, remain stationary for long periods and interact to exacerbate the precipitation. The western edge of the WPSH expands westward towards East Asia to transport moisture. To the north, the WPSH combines with the two blocking highs to trigger more rain. The intensified SAH expands eastward and merges with the extended WPSH to add rain. On the other hand, rainfall is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), notably in relation to the super El Niño events in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016, and 2020. The research described in this paper highlights changes in the weather systems with warming and, in particular, the enormous and dominating impact of the warming and expanding IPWP on rainfall extremes. Improved seasonal forecasts and planning ahead will protect lives and livelihoods.
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spelling pubmed-99982492023-03-10 Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020 Lee, Y. C. Wenig, M. O. Chan, K. L. Air Qual Atmos Health Article Observed synoptic anomalies in connection with China’s extreme precipitation events/floods in the summers of 1982/83, 1997/98, 2010, 2014, 2015/16, and 2020 are studied. These events mainly occur within the middle and lower Yangtze basins. The dominant moisture source is the Northern Indian Ocean and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Both of these bodies of water have warmed since 1979. In East Asia, the strong land‐sea thermal contrast driven by global warming drives the increased East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation, which develops deep convective precipitation. The total precipitable water in the Indo-Pacific region has also been increasing since 1979. The intense southwest Indian monsoon transports moist air to the Yangtze basin in mid-June and forms the Meiyu (plum rain) front. Strengthened Okhotsk/Ural blocking highs in East and West Asia, as well as the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the South Asian high (SAH) over south Eurasia, remain stationary for long periods and interact to exacerbate the precipitation. The western edge of the WPSH expands westward towards East Asia to transport moisture. To the north, the WPSH combines with the two blocking highs to trigger more rain. The intensified SAH expands eastward and merges with the extended WPSH to add rain. On the other hand, rainfall is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), notably in relation to the super El Niño events in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016, and 2020. The research described in this paper highlights changes in the weather systems with warming and, in particular, the enormous and dominating impact of the warming and expanding IPWP on rainfall extremes. Improved seasonal forecasts and planning ahead will protect lives and livelihoods. Springer Netherlands 2023-03-10 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9998249/ /pubmed/37213470 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11869-022-01295-9 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2023, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Lee, Y. C.
Wenig, M. O.
Chan, K. L.
Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020
title Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020
title_full Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020
title_fullStr Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020
title_full_unstemmed Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020
title_short Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983–2020
title_sort oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in china 1983–2020
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9998249/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37213470
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11869-022-01295-9
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