Recent evolution of wine exports in a turbulence period: a multiregional input–output analysis

This study focuses on analysing the economic impact (in value-added terms) generated by Spanish wine exports during the period 2018–2020, characterized by significant geopolitical changes and market shocks produced by Brexit, the entry into force of the Federal Law on Viticulture and Winemaking in the Russian Federation, the imposition of tariffs by the USA and the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, the multiregional input–output model was used to identify the overall effects (direct and indirect) in different countries deriving from the changes in final demand. The paper shows that both the world wine trade and Spanish wine exports have been negatively affected by the recent changes in the analysed period. It is estimated that the accumulated losses since 2018 as a result of the decrease in the value-added generated by Spanish wine exports exceed 300 million euros. In addition, the results suggest that the negative effects of COVID-19 are greater than the effects caused by the rest of the geopolitical changes.