“…Nine of the statistics increased as predicted and variance, the first difference of variance, autocovariance, lag-1 autocorrelation and decay time returned early warning signals of critical slowing down based on permutation tests. …”
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“…Many ecological systems are subject critical transitions, which are abrupt changes to contrasting states triggered by small changes in some key component of the system. Temporal early warning signals such as the variance of a time series, and spatial early warning signals such as the spatial correlation in a snapshot of the system’s state, have been proposed to forecast critical transitions. …”
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“…Early warning indicators based on critical slowing down have been suggested as a model-independent and low-cost tool to anticipate the (re)emergence of infectious diseases. …”
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“…Recent theory suggests that a generic feature of dynamical systems approaching a tipping point—early warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD)—can anticipate disease emergence and elimination. …”
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“…Wavelet-based early warning signals were as reliable as other conventional early warning signals. …”
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“…The indicators of disease emergence detailed in this paper can be classified into two parallel approaches: a set of early-warning signals based around the theory of critical slowing down and a likelihood-based approach. …”
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“…Because the system dynamics exhibit characteristic fluctuations in response to perturbations for a system in the vicinity of a critical point, we propose this information may be harnessed to develop early warning signals. Specifically, the motion of perturbations slows as the system approaches the transition.…”
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“…This predictive model can be used to prioritize high-risk viruses for future research and surveillance, and could inform an integrated early warning system for emerging infectious diseases.…”
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“…These findings aid our understanding of real emergence events, and can be incorporated into early-warning systems aimed at forecasting disease risk.…”
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“…We conducted a simulation study to test the performance of each summary statistic as an early warning system of mosquito-borne disease elimination. …”
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“…Second-order statistics such as the variance and autocorrelation can be useful indicators of the stability of randomly perturbed systems, in some cases providing early warning of an impending, dramatic change in the system’s dynamics. …”
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“…CONCLUSION: These results show that the rate of societal learning can greatly affect the final size of disease outbreaks, justifying investment in early warning systems and attentiveness to disease outbreak by both government authorities and the public. …”
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“…To prevent future outbreaks, coordinated, multiscale, early warning systems should be developed that make full use of these integrated assessments, partner with local communities in high-risk areas, and provide clearly defined response recommendations specific to the needs of each community.…”
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“…One proposed method to anticipate this transition are early-warning signals (EWS), summary statistics which undergo characteristic changes as the transition is approached. …”
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“…This has raised the possibility of anticipating disease (re-)emergence using CSD-based early-warning signals (EWS), which are statistical moments estimated from time series data. …”
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