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1por Corander, Jukka, Fraser, Christophe, Gutmann, Michael U., Arnold, Brian, Hanage, William P., Bentley, Stephen D., Lipsitch, Marc, Croucher, Nicholas J.“…Fitting a multilocus NFDS model of post-vaccine population dynamics to three genomic datasets using Approximate Bayesian Computation generated reproducible estimates of the influence of NFDS on pneumococcal evolution, the strength of which varied between loci. …”
Publicado 2017
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2“…Previous work on bacteriocin dynamics has highlighted the role of non-transitive ‘rock–paper–scissors’ competition in maintaining the coexistence of different bacteriocin profiles. …”
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3por Truscott, James, Fraser, Christophe, Cauchemez, Simon, Meeyai, Aronrag, Hinsley, Wes, Donnelly, Christl A., Ghani, Azra, Ferguson, NeilEnlace del recurso
Publicado 2012
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4“…This approach allows use to examine the direct effects of network structure on pathogen phylogenies, largely controlling for confounding differences arising from population dynamics. We find that networks with more heterogeneous degree distributions yield pathogen phylogenies with more variable cluster numbers, smaller mean cluster sizes, shorter mean branch lengths, and somewhat higher tree imbalance than networks with relatively homogeneous degree distributions. …”
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5“…In this state, the whole body’s viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. …”
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6por Cobey, Sarah, Baskerville, Edward B., Colijn, Caroline, Hanage, William, Fraser, Christophe, Lipsitch, Marc“…This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact.…”
Publicado 2017
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7por Ratmann, Oliver, Kagaayi, Joseph, Hall, Matthew, Golubchick, Tanya, Kigozi, Godfrey, Xi, Xiaoyue, Wymant, Chris, Nakigozi, Gertrude, Abeler-Dörner, Lucie, Bonsall, David, Gall, Astrid, Hoppe, Anne, Kellam, Paul, Bazaale, Jeremiah, Kalibbala, Sarah, Laeyendecker, Oliver, Lessler, Justin, Nalugoda, Fred, Chang, Larry W, de Oliveira, Tulio, Pillay, Deenan, Quinn, Thomas C, Reynolds, Steven J, Spencer, Simon E F, Ssekubugu, Robert, Serwadda, David, Wawer, Maria J, Gray, Ronald H, Fraser, Christophe, Grabowski, M Kate“…This result suggests that targeted interventions to these hotspots will not alone control the epidemic in inland populations, where most transmissions occur. Thus, geographical targeting of high prevalence areas might not be effective for broader epidemic control depending on underlying epidemic dynamics. …”
Publicado 2020
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8por Bbosa, Nicholas, Ssemwanga, Deogratius, Ssekagiri, Alfred, Xi, Xiaoyue, Mayanja, Yunia, Bahemuka, Ubaldo, Seeley, Janet, Pillay, Deenan, Abeler-Dörner, Lucie, Golubchik, Tanya, Fraser, Christophe, Kaleebu, Pontiano, Ratmann, Oliver“…Only one pair involved a WHR and male participant, suggesting that improved population sampling is needed to assess empirically the role of WHR to the transmission dynamics. …”
Publicado 2020
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9“…Using sequence data to infer population dynamics is playing an increasing role in the analysis of outbreaks. …”
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10por Magiorkinis, Gkikas, Sypsa, Vana, Magiorkinis, Emmanouil, Paraskevis, Dimitrios, Katsoulidou, Antigoni, Belshaw, Robert, Fraser, Christophe, Pybus, Oliver George, Hatzakis, Angelos“…Here we describe a novel method that combines epidemiological and population genetic approaches to estimate the variation in transmissibility of rapidly-evolving viral epidemics. …”
Publicado 2013
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11por Cori, Anne, Donnelly, Christl A., Dorigatti, Ilaria, Ferguson, Neil M., Fraser, Christophe, Garske, Tini, Jombart, Thibaut, Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Nouvellet, Pierre, Riley, Steven, Van Kerkhove, Maria D., Mills, Harriet L., Blake, Isobel M.“…To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. …”
Publicado 2017
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12“…If viral reproduction rates increase significantly during the course of infection, the viral population will evolve a high level of virulence even though this will reduce the transmission potential of the virus. …”
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13por Colijn, Caroline, Cohen, Ted, Fraser, Christophe, Hanage, William, Goldstein, Edward, Givon-Lavi, Noga, Dagan, Ron, Lipsitch, Marc“…We conclude that while treatment and contact heterogeneity can promote coexistence to some extent, the in-host interactions between strains, particularly the interplay between coinfection, multiple infection and immunity, play a crucial role in the long-term population dynamics of pathogens with drug resistance.…”
Publicado 2010
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14por Magosi, Lerato E, Zhang, Yinfeng, Golubchik, Tanya, DeGruttola, Victor, Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric, Novitsky, Vladimir, Moore, Janet, Bachanas, Pam, Segolodi, Tebogo, Lebelonyane, Refeletswe, Pretorius Holme, Molly, Moyo, Sikhulile, Makhema, Joseph, Lockman, Shahin, Fraser, Christophe, Essex, Myron Max, Lipsitch, Marc“…CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that population mobility patterns are fundamental to HIV transmission dynamics and to the impact of HIV control strategies. …”
Publicado 2022
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15“…We developed a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of putative viral genotypes that differ in their virulence. …”
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16“…However, the concomitant incidence dynamics result in a very large reproductive number and are not consistent with empirical estimates of H3N2's population level attack rate. …”
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17“…Seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic usage translate into small fluctuations of the frequency of resistance around the average value. We describe these dynamics using a perturbation approach that encapsulates all ecological and evolutionary forces into a generic model, whose parameters quantify a force stabilizing the frequency of resistance around the equilibrium and the sensitivity of the population to antibiotic selection. …”
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18por Heffernan, Alastair, Barber, Ella, Thomas, Ranjeeta, Fraser, Christophe, Pickles, Michael, Cori, Anne“…We assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing POC CD4 testing at the population level in South Africa in a range of care contexts, using a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission, calibrated to the South African HIV epidemic. …”
Publicado 2016
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19por Ratmann, Oliver, Hodcroft, Emma B., Pickles, Michael, Cori, Anne, Hall, Matthew, Lycett, Samantha, Colijn, Caroline, Dearlove, Bethany, Didelot, Xavier, Frost, Simon, Hossain, A.S. Md Mukarram, Joy, Jeffrey B., Kendall, Michelle, Kühnert, Denise, Leventhal, Gabriel E., Liang, Richard, Plazzotta, Giacomo, Poon, Art F.Y., Rasmussen, David A., Stadler, Tanja, Volz, Erik, Weis, Caroline, Leigh Brown, Andrew J., Fraser, Christophe“…Viral phylogenetic methods contribute to understanding how HIV spreads in populations, and thereby help guide the design of prevention interventions. …”
Publicado 2017
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20por Hinch, Robert, Probert, William J. M., Nurtay, Anel, Kendall, Michelle, Wymant, Chris, Hall, Matthew, Lythgoe, Katrina, Bulas Cruz, Ana, Zhao, Lele, Stewart, Andrea, Ferretti, Luca, Montero, Daniel, Warren, James, Mather, Nicole, Abueg, Matthew, Wu, Neo, Legat, Olivier, Bentley, Katie, Mead, Thomas, Van-Vuuren, Kelvin, Feldner-Busztin, Dylan, Ristori, Tommaso, Finkelstein, Anthony, Bonsall, David G., Abeler-Dörner, Lucie, Fraser, Christophe“…A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 are its Python and R interfaces, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic.…”
Publicado 2021
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