Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in wet rice noodles from raw material to marketing phase

From 2018, several foodborne diseases caused by the consumption of wet rice noodles contaminated with microorganisms have attracted the attention of consumers and surveillance departments. We explored the crucial risk factors for the contamination of Bacillus cereus during the various steps of the wet rice noodles production chain (from raw material to marketing phase). A total of 273 samples were collected in each corresponding production phase. The contamination level was quantitatively detected in the samples, and the corresponding temperature and time were recorded and analyzed using @Risk software. The quantitative detection results of raw material were determined as the initial contamination level in the model to predict the final contamination level and assess the key risk factors for B. cereus contamination in wet rice noodles. The model predicted that the final contamination level of B. cereus was in the range of −3.55 to 4.34 log CFU/g in 95% wet rice noodles at the marketing phase. The highest predicted contamination level was 6.28 log CFU/g, and the risk of exceeding the threshold was 0.80%. The model was verified to be valid for R(2) > 0.96, and the predicted results could be used for reference. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis revealed that in addition to raw material, the key control factors were buffering temperature in the packaging delivery phase, transporting temperature and time from factory to marketing phase; their correlation coefficients (r) were 0.18, 0.16, and 0.15, respectively. Therefore, manufacturers need to adjust the current predelivery buffering and transporting mode. It is recommended to reduce the predelivery buffering temperature, and refrigerated trucks are preferred to control the proliferation of B. cereus in transported food, thus reducing the occurrence of foodborne diseases and improving the safety of food.