Investigating the association between fasting insulin, erythrocytosis and HbA1c through Mendelian randomization and observational analyses

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance (IR) with associated compensatory hyperinsulinemia (HI) are early abnormalities in the etiology of prediabetes (preT2D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). IR and HI also associate with increased erythrocytosis. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is commonly used to diagnose and monitor preT2D and T2D, but can be influenced by erythrocytosis independent of glycemia. METHODS: We undertook bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) in individuals of European ancestry to investigate potential causal associations between increased fasting insulin adjusted for BMI (FI), erythrocytosis and its non-glycemic impact on HbA1c. We investigated the association between the triglyceride-glucose index (TGI), a surrogate measure of IR and HI, and glycation gap (difference between measured HbA1c and predicted HbA1c derived from linear regression of fasting glucose) in people with normoglycemia and preT2D. RESULTS: Inverse variance weighted MR (IVWMR) suggested that increased FI increases hemoglobin (Hb, b=0.54 ± 0.09, p=2.7 x 10(-10)), red cell count (RCC, b=0.54 ± 0.12, p=5.38x10(-6)) and reticulocyte (RETIC, b=0.70 ± 0.15, p=2.18x10(-6)). Multivariable MR indicated that increased FI did not impact HbA1c (b=0.23 ± 0.16, p=0.162) but reduced HbA1c after adjustment for T2D (b=0.31 ± 0.13, p=0.016). Increased Hb (b=0.03 ± 0.01, p=0.02), RCC (b=0.02 ± 0.01, p=0.04) and RETIC (b=0.03 ± 0.01, p=0.002) might modestly increase FI. In the observational cohort, increased TGI associated with decreased glycation gap, (i.e., measured HbA1c was lower than expected based on fasting glucose, (b=-0.09 ± 0.009, p<0.0001)) in people with preT2D but not in those with normoglycemia (b=0.02 ± 0.007, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: MR suggests increased FI increases erythrocytosis and might potentially decrease HbA1c by non-glycemic effects. Increased TGI, a surrogate measure of increased FI, associates with lower-than-expected HbA1c in people with preT2D. These findings merit confirmatory studies to evaluate their clinical significance.