How Many Diet-Related Non-Communicable Disease Deaths Could Be Averted or Delayed If Canadians Reduced Their Consumption of Calories Derived from Free Sugars Intake? A Macrosimulation Modeling Study

Free sugars are a major source of calories in diets and contribute to the burden of many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends reducing free sugars intake to less than 10% of total energy. This study aimed to estimate the number of diet-related NCD deaths which could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their calorie intake due to a systematic 20% reduction in the free sugars content in foods and beverages in Canada. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) to estimate the potential health impact. An estimated 6770 (95% UI 6184–7333) deaths due to diet-related NCDs could be averted or delayed, mostly from cardiovascular diseases (66.3%). This estimation would represent 7.5% of diet-related NCD deaths observed in 2019 in Canada. A 20% reduction in the free sugars content in foods and beverages would lead to a 3.2% reduction in calorie intake, yet an important number of diet-related NCD deaths could be averted or delayed through this strategy. Our findings can inform future policy decisions to support Canadians’ free sugars intake reduction, such as proposing target levels for the free sugars content in key food categories.