P16 immunohistochemistry is a sensitive and specific surrogate marker for CDKN2A homozygous deletion in gliomas

Molecular characterization of gliomas has uncovered genomic signatures with significant impact on tumor diagnosis and prognostication. CDKN2A is a tumor suppressor gene involved in cell cycle control. Homozygous deletion of the CDKN2A/B locus has been implicated in both gliomagenesis and tumor progression through dysregulated cell proliferation. In histologically lower grade gliomas, CDKN2A homozygous deletion is associated with more aggressive clinical course and is a molecular marker of grade 4 status in the 2021 WHO diagnostic system. Despite its prognostic utility, molecular analysis for CDKN2A deletion remains time consuming, expensive, and is not widely available. This study assessed whether semi-quantitative immunohistochemistry for expression of p16, the protein product of CDKN2A, can serve as a sensitive and a specific marker for CDKN2A homozygous deletion in gliomas. P16 expression was quantified by immunohistochemistry in 100 gliomas, representing both IDH-wildtype and IDH-mutant tumors of all grades, using two independent pathologists’ scores and QuPath digital pathology analysis. Molecular CDKN2A status was determined using next-generation DNA sequencing, with homozygous CDKN2A deletion detected in 48% of the tumor cohort. Classifying CDKN2A status based on p16 tumor cell expression (0–100%) demonstrated robust performance over a wide range of thresholds, with receiver operating characteristic curve area of 0.993 and 0.997 (blinded and unblinded pathologist p16 scores, respectively) and 0.969 (QuPath p16 score). Importantly, in tumors with pathologist-scored p16 equal to or less than 5%, the specificity for predicting CDKN2A homozygous deletion was 100%; and in tumors with p16 greater than 20%, specificity for excluding CDKN2A homozygous deletion was also 100%. Conversely, tumors with p16 scores of 6–20% represented gray zone with imperfect correlation to CDKN2A status. The findings indicate that p16 immunohistochemistry is a reliable surrogate marker of CDKN2A homozygous deletion in gliomas, with recommended p16 cutoff scores of ≤ 5% for confirming and > 20% for excluding biallelic CDKN2A loss. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40478-023-01573-2.