Combination of clinical, radiomic, and “delta” radiomic features in survival prediction of metastatic gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVES: To identify combined clinical, radiomic, and delta-radiomic features in metastatic gastroesophageal adenocarcinomas (GEAs) that may predict survival outcomes. METHODS: A total of 166 patients with metastatic GEAs on palliative chemotherapy with baseline and treatment/follow-up (8–12 weeks) contrast-enhanced CT were retrospectively identified. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Three-dimensional whole-lesional radiomic analysis was performed on the treatment/follow-up scans. “Delta” radiomic features were calculated based on the change in radiomic parameters compared to the baseline. The univariable analysis (UVA) Cox proportional hazards model was used to select clinical variables predictive of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) (p-value <0.05). The radiomic and “delta” features were then assessed in a multivariable analysis (MVA) Cox model in combination with clinical features identified on UVA. Features with a p-value <0.01 in the MVA models were selected to assess their pairwise correlation. Only non-highly correlated features (Pearson’s correlation coefficient <0.7) were included in the final model. Leave-one-out cross-validation method was used, and the 1-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for PFS and OS. RESULTS: Of the 166 patients (median age of 59.8 years), 114 (69%) were male, 139 (84%) were non-Asian, and 147 (89%) had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 0–1. The median PFS and OS on treatment were 3.6 months (95% CI 2.86, 4.63) and 9 months (95% CI 7.49, 11.04), respectively. On UVA, the number of chemotherapy cycles and number of lesions at the end of treatment were associated with both PFS and OS (p < 0.001). ECOG status was associated with OS (p = 0.0063), but not PFS (p = 0.054). Of the delta-radiomic features, delta conventional HUmin, delta gray-level zone length matrix (GLZLM) GLNU, and delta GLZLM LGZE were incorporated into the model for PFS, and delta shape compacity was incorporated in the model for OS. Of the treatment/follow-up radiomic features, shape compacity and neighborhood gray-level dependence matrix (NGLDM) contrast were used in both models. The combined 1-year AUC (Kaplan–Meier estimator) was 0.82 and 0.81 for PFS and OS, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of clinical, radiomics, and delta-radiomic features may predict PFS and OS in GEAs with reasonable accuracy.