Educational inequalities in metabolic syndrome prevalence, timing, and duration amongst adults over the life course: a microsimulation analysis based on the lifelines cohort study

BACKGROUND: Educational inequalities in metabolic syndrome (MetS) are a growing public health concern. Intervening on modifiable factors may help reduce these inequalities, but there is a need for evidence on the long-term impact of intervening on these factors. Thus, we simulate the development of educational inequalities in MetS across the life course and assess the impact of intervening on the modifiable factors that contribute to these inequalities. METHODS: We used data from the prospective multigenerational Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study to estimate the required input for a continuous-time microsimulation. The microsimulation projects the development of educational inequalities in MetS between ages 18 and 65, and assesses the potential benefit of intervening on smoking, alcohol use, diet quality, and health literacy. FINDINGS: The likelihood of ever experiencing MetS between ages 18 and 65 varies from 32.5% among high educated women to 71.5% among low educated men. On average, 27.6% more individuals with low education will ever experience MetS between ages 18 and 65 compared to those with high education. Additionally, individuals with low education generally will develop MetS 2.3 years earlier, and will spend an extra 2.6 years with MetS, compared to individuals with high education. Changes to smoking behaviours in individuals with low education produced the largest effect; it would reduce inequalities in prevalence, timing and duration by an average of 7.5%, 9.5%, and 6.9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions targeting the modifiable factors included in this study, especially smoking, could help reduce the estimated educational inequalities in MetS over the life course. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-023-01495-1.