Model-based characterization of the equilibrium dynamics of transcription initiation and promoter-proximal pausing in human cells

In metazoans, both transcription initiation and the escape of RNA polymerase (RNAP) from promoter-proximal pausing are key rate-limiting steps in gene expression. These processes play out at physically proximal sites on the DNA template and appear to influence one another through steric interactions. Here, we examine the dynamics of these processes using a combination of statistical modeling, simulation, and analysis of real nascent RNA sequencing data. We develop a simple probabilistic model that jointly describes the kinetics of transcription initiation, pause-escape, and elongation, and the generation of nascent RNA sequencing read counts under steady-state conditions. We then extend this initial model to allow for variability across cells in promoter-proximal pause site locations and steric hindrance of transcription initiation from paused RNAPs. In an extensive series of simulations, we show that this model enables accurate estimation of initiation and pause-escape rates. Furthermore, we show by simulation and analysis of real data that pause-escape is often strongly rate-limiting and that steric hindrance can dramatically reduce initiation rates. Our modeling framework is applicable to a variety of inference problems, and our software for estimation and simulation is freely available.