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Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle

Both badgers and livestock movements have been implicated in contributing to the ongoing epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in British cattle. However, the relative contributions of these and other causes are not well quantified. We used cattle movement data to construct an individual (premises)-...

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Autores principales: Green, Darren M, Kiss, Istvan Z, Mitchell, Andrew P, Kao, Rowland R
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2008
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2366193/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18252669
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1601
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author Green, Darren M
Kiss, Istvan Z
Mitchell, Andrew P
Kao, Rowland R
author_facet Green, Darren M
Kiss, Istvan Z
Mitchell, Andrew P
Kao, Rowland R
author_sort Green, Darren M
collection PubMed
description Both badgers and livestock movements have been implicated in contributing to the ongoing epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in British cattle. However, the relative contributions of these and other causes are not well quantified. We used cattle movement data to construct an individual (premises)-based model of BTB spread within Great Britain, accounting for spread due to recorded cattle movements and other causes. Outbreak data for 2004 were best explained by a model attributing 16% of herd infections directly to cattle movements, and a further 9% unexplained, potentially including spread from unrecorded movements. The best-fit model assumed low levels of cattle-to-cattle transmission. The remaining 75% of infection was attributed to local effects within specific high-risk areas. Annual and biennial testing is mandatory for herds deemed at high risk of infection, as is pre-movement testing from such herds. The herds identified as high risk in 2004 by our model are in broad agreement with those officially designated as such at that time. However, border areas at the edges of high-risk regions are different, suggesting possible areas that should be targeted to prevent further geographical spread of disease. With these areas expanding rapidly over the last decade, their close surveillance is important to both identify infected herds quickly, and limit their further growth.
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spelling pubmed-23661932008-12-29 Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle Green, Darren M Kiss, Istvan Z Mitchell, Andrew P Kao, Rowland R Proc Biol Sci Research Article Both badgers and livestock movements have been implicated in contributing to the ongoing epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in British cattle. However, the relative contributions of these and other causes are not well quantified. We used cattle movement data to construct an individual (premises)-based model of BTB spread within Great Britain, accounting for spread due to recorded cattle movements and other causes. Outbreak data for 2004 were best explained by a model attributing 16% of herd infections directly to cattle movements, and a further 9% unexplained, potentially including spread from unrecorded movements. The best-fit model assumed low levels of cattle-to-cattle transmission. The remaining 75% of infection was attributed to local effects within specific high-risk areas. Annual and biennial testing is mandatory for herds deemed at high risk of infection, as is pre-movement testing from such herds. The herds identified as high risk in 2004 by our model are in broad agreement with those officially designated as such at that time. However, border areas at the edges of high-risk regions are different, suggesting possible areas that should be targeted to prevent further geographical spread of disease. With these areas expanding rapidly over the last decade, their close surveillance is important to both identify infected herds quickly, and limit their further growth. The Royal Society 2008-02-12 2008-05-07 /pmc/articles/PMC2366193/ /pubmed/18252669 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1601 Text en Copyright © 2008 The Royal Society http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Green, Darren M
Kiss, Istvan Z
Mitchell, Andrew P
Kao, Rowland R
Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle
title Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle
title_full Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle
title_fullStr Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle
title_full_unstemmed Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle
title_short Estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in British cattle
title_sort estimates for local and movement-based transmission of bovine tuberculosis in british cattle
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2366193/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18252669
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1601
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