Age-Specific Incidence Data Indicate Four Mutations Are Required for Human Testicular Cancers

Normal human cells require a series of genetic alterations to undergo malignant transformation. Direct sequencing of human tumors has identified hundreds of mutations in tumors, but many of these are thought to be unnecessary and a result of, rather than a cause of, the tumor. The exact number of mutations to transform a normal human cell into a tumor cell is unknown. Here I show that male gonadal germ cell tumors, the most common form of testicular cancers, occur after four mutations. I infer this by constructing a mathematical model based upon the multi-hit hypothesis and comparing it to the age-specific incidence data. This result is consistent with the multi-hit hypothesis, and implies that these cancers are genetically or epigenetically predetermined at birth or an early age.