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Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the futur...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Billari, F C, Graziani, R, Melilli, E
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3412228/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22879704
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.01015.x