Evolutionary triage governs fitness in driver and passenger mutations and suggests targeting never mutations

Genetic and epigenetic changes in cancer cells are typically divided into “drivers” and “passengers”. Drug development strategies target driver mutations, but inter- and intra-tumoral heterogeneity usually results in emergence of resistance. Here we model intratumoral evolution in the context of a fecundity/survivorship trade-off. Simulations demonstrate the fitness value, of any genetic change is not fixed but dependent on evolutionary triage governed by initial cell properties, current selection forces, and prior genotypic/phenotypic trajectories. We demonstrate spatial variations in molecular properties of tumor cells are the result of changes in environmental selection forces such as blood flow. Simulated therapies targeting fitness-increasing (driver) mutations usually decrease the tumor burden but almost inevitably fail due to population heterogeneity. An alternative strategy targets gene mutations that are never observed. Because up or down regulation of these genes unconditionally reduces cellular fitness, they are eliminated by evolutionary triage but can be exploited for targeted therapy.