A Modelling Approach to Estimate the Impact of Sodium Reduction in Soups on Cardiovascular Health in the Netherlands

Hypertension is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality, which could be lowered by reducing dietary sodium. The potential health impact of a product reformulation in the Netherlands was modelled, selecting packaged soups containing on average 25% less sodium as an example of an achievable product reformulation when implemented gradually. First, the blood pressure lowering resulting from sodium intake reduction was modelled. Second, the predicted blood pressure lowering was translated into potentially preventable incidence and mortality cases from stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), angina pectoris, and heart failure (HF) implementing one year salt reduction. Finally, the potentially preventable subsequent lifetime Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were calculated. The sodium reduction in soups might potentially reduce the incidence and mortality of stroke by approximately 0.5%, AMI and angina by 0.3%, and HF by 0.2%. The related burden of disease could be reduced by approximately 800 lifetime DALYs. This modelling approach can be used to provide insight into the potential public health impact of sodium reduction in specific food products. The data demonstrate that an achievable food product reformulation to reduce sodium can potentially benefit public health, albeit modest. When implemented across multiple product categories and countries, a significant health impact could be achieved.