Understanding Heterogeneity in Clinical Cohorts Using Normative Models: Beyond Case-Control Studies

BACKGROUND: Despite many successes, the case-control approach is problematic in biomedical science. It introduces an artificial symmetry whereby all clinical groups (e.g., patients and control subjects) are assumed to be well defined, when biologically they are often highly heterogeneous. By definition, it also precludes inference over the validity of the diagnostic labels. In response, the National Institute of Mental Health Research Domain Criteria proposes to map relationships between symptom dimensions and broad behavioral and biological domains, cutting across diagnostic categories. However, to date, Research Domain Criteria have prompted few methods to meaningfully stratify clinical cohorts. METHODS: We introduce normative modeling for parsing heterogeneity in clinical cohorts, while allowing predictions at an individual subject level. This approach aims to map variation within the cohort and is distinct from, and complementary to, existing approaches that address heterogeneity by employing clustering techniques to fractionate cohorts. To demonstrate this approach, we mapped the relationship between trait impulsivity and reward-related brain activity in a large healthy cohort (N = 491). RESULTS: We identify participants who are outliers within this distribution and show that the degree of deviation (outlier magnitude) relates to specific attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms (hyperactivity, but not inattention) on the basis of individualized patterns of abnormality. CONCLUSIONS: Normative modeling provides a natural framework to study disorders at the individual participant level without dichotomizing the cohort. Instead, disease can be considered as an extreme of the normal range or as—possibly idiosyncratic—deviation from normal functioning. It also enables inferences over the degree to which behavioral variables, including diagnostic labels, map onto biology.