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Probabilistic mortality forecasting with varying age-specific survival improvements
Many mortality forecasting approaches extrapolate past trends. Their predictions of the future development can be quite precise as long as turning points and/or age-shifts of mortality decline are not present. To account even for such mortality dynamics, we propose a model that combines recently dev...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer International Publishing
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5233746/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28133393 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41118-016-0017-8 |