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Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from s...

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Autores principales: Betts, Richard A., Alfieri, Lorenzo, Bradshaw, Catherine, Caesar, John, Feyen, Luc, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gohar, Laila, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Lewis, Kirsty, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Papadimitriou, Lamprini, Richardson, Katy J., Tsanis, Ioannis, Wyser, Klaus
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society Publishing 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5897824/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610383
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0452
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author Betts, Richard A.
Alfieri, Lorenzo
Bradshaw, Catherine
Caesar, John
Feyen, Luc
Friedlingstein, Pierre
Gohar, Laila
Koutroulis, Aristeidis
Lewis, Kirsty
Morfopoulos, Catherine
Papadimitriou, Lamprini
Richardson, Katy J.
Tsanis, Ioannis
Wyser, Klaus
author_facet Betts, Richard A.
Alfieri, Lorenzo
Bradshaw, Catherine
Caesar, John
Feyen, Luc
Friedlingstein, Pierre
Gohar, Laila
Koutroulis, Aristeidis
Lewis, Kirsty
Morfopoulos, Catherine
Papadimitriou, Lamprini
Richardson, Katy J.
Tsanis, Ioannis
Wyser, Klaus
author_sort Betts, Richard A.
collection PubMed
description We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.
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spelling pubmed-58978242018-04-13 Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model Betts, Richard A. Alfieri, Lorenzo Bradshaw, Catherine Caesar, John Feyen, Luc Friedlingstein, Pierre Gohar, Laila Koutroulis, Aristeidis Lewis, Kirsty Morfopoulos, Catherine Papadimitriou, Lamprini Richardson, Katy J. Tsanis, Ioannis Wyser, Klaus Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Articles We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. The Royal Society Publishing 2018-05-13 2018-04-02 /pmc/articles/PMC5897824/ /pubmed/29610383 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0452 Text en © 2018 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Articles
Betts, Richard A.
Alfieri, Lorenzo
Bradshaw, Catherine
Caesar, John
Feyen, Luc
Friedlingstein, Pierre
Gohar, Laila
Koutroulis, Aristeidis
Lewis, Kirsty
Morfopoulos, Catherine
Papadimitriou, Lamprini
Richardson, Katy J.
Tsanis, Ioannis
Wyser, Klaus
Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
title Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
title_full Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
title_fullStr Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
title_full_unstemmed Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
title_short Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
title_sort changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°c and 2°c global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5897824/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610383
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0452
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