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The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. METHODOLOGY: We created...

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Autores principales: Yerramilli, Arvind, Tay, Ee Laine, Stewardson, Andrew J., Fyfe, Janet, O’Brien, Daniel P., Johnson, Paul D. R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6160213/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30222751
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757
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author Yerramilli, Arvind
Tay, Ee Laine
Stewardson, Andrew J.
Fyfe, Janet
O’Brien, Daniel P.
Johnson, Paul D. R.
author_facet Yerramilli, Arvind
Tay, Ee Laine
Stewardson, Andrew J.
Fyfe, Janet
O’Brien, Daniel P.
Johnson, Paul D. R.
author_sort Yerramilli, Arvind
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. METHODOLOGY: We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004–2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0–24 months to investigate patterns of correlation. CONCLUSIONS: Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.
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spelling pubmed-61602132018-10-19 The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia Yerramilli, Arvind Tay, Ee Laine Stewardson, Andrew J. Fyfe, Janet O’Brien, Daniel P. Johnson, Paul D. R. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. METHODOLOGY: We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004–2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0–24 months to investigate patterns of correlation. CONCLUSIONS: Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions. Public Library of Science 2018-09-17 /pmc/articles/PMC6160213/ /pubmed/30222751 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757 Text en © 2018 Yerramilli et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Yerramilli, Arvind
Tay, Ee Laine
Stewardson, Andrew J.
Fyfe, Janet
O’Brien, Daniel P.
Johnson, Paul D. R.
The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia
title The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia
title_full The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia
title_fullStr The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia
title_full_unstemmed The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia
title_short The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia
title_sort association of rainfall and buruli ulcer in southeastern australia
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6160213/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30222751
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757
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