Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics

For dengue fever and other seasonal epidemics we show how the stability of the preceding inter-outbreak period can predict subsequent total outbreak magnitude, and that a feasible stability metric can be computed from incidence data alone. As an observable of a dynamical system, incidence data conta...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rypdal, Martin, Sugihara, George
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2019
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6542824/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31147545
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y

Internet

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6542824/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31147545
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y

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