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Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics
For dengue fever and other seasonal epidemics we show how the stability of the preceding inter-outbreak period can predict subsequent total outbreak magnitude, and that a feasible stability metric can be computed from incidence data alone. As an observable of a dynamical system, incidence data conta...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
| Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2019
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| Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6542824/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31147545 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y |